Table 1.

Summary of model selection results investigating survival to the end of winter, assessed at 1 October (i.e. start of spring) for (a) red-winged fairy-wrens and (b) white-browed scrubwrens captured during the autumn and winter months (April–September) between 1977 and 2014. Shown are standardized coefficients and their standard errors (s.e.) for variables included in the top models with ΔAICc less than 2 (or the top 10 models with ΔAICc less than 2), following model selection based on AICc. In addition, the last model in each table shows the top model from the set of models that do not include any ECEs or mean climate effects. Variables identified as important in the top model have 95% CIs of estimated coefficients that do not overlap zero and are shown in italics. Models were ranked by ΔAICc values. n.a. represents variables that were not included in the model. + indicates that a variable was included in model.

(a) red-winged fairy-wrens
model	intercept	catch effort	mean summer temp (carry-over)	mean summer temp2 (carry-over)	mean winter temp (direct)	mean winter temp2 (direct)	total annual rainfall	NDays from capture to Oct1	age	sex (male)	body size	body size × mean summer temp (carry-over)	body size × mean winter temp (direct)	d.f.	AICc	ΔAICc
1	−0.207 ± 0.119	+	0.069 ± 0.100	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.117 ± 0.074	n.a.	0.282 ± 0.076	0.211 ± 0.074	n.a.	8	1219.028	0
2	−0.216	+	0.058	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.314	0.212	n.a.	7	1219.459	0.431
3	−0.273	+	0.067	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.120	+	0.245	0.212	n.a.	9	1220.606	1.578
4	−0.214	+	0.072	n.a.	n.a.	−0.049	n.a.	n.a.	0.118	n.a.	0.281	0.212	n.a.	9	1220.834	1.806
5	−0.214	+	0.072	n.a.	−0.048	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.118	n.a.	0.281	0.212	n.a.	9	1220.841	1.813
6	−0.206	+	0.069	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.031	0.117	n.a.	0.285	0.211	n.a.	9	1220.897	1.869
7	−0.209	+	0.082	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	−0.024	n.a.	0.117	n.a.	0.282	0.211	n.a.	9	1221.027	1.999
8	−0.259	+	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.117	n.a.	0.282	n.a.	n.a.	6	1223.577	4.549

(b) white-browed scrubwrens
model	intercept	NHotDryDays (carry-over)	NHotDryDays2 (carry-over)	NColdWetDays (direct)	NColdWetDays2 (direct)	total annual rainfall	NDays from capture to Oct1	age	sex (male)	body size	body size × NHotDryDays (carry-over)	body size × NColdWetDays (direct)	d.f.	AICc	ΔAICc
1	0.042 ± 0.128	−0.176 ± 0.126	n.a.	−1.188 ± 0.496	0.970 ± 0.489	n.a.	−0.152 ± 0.082	0.134 ± 0.083	n.a.	0.081 ± 0.079	0.138 ± 0.079	n.a.	9	1080.563	0.000
2	0.037	−0.181	n.a.	−1.207	0.981	n.a.	−0.162	0.150	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	7	1080.571	0.007
3	0.009	n.a.	n.a.	−1.063	0.893	n.a.	−0.151	0.156	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	6	1080.672	0.109
4	0.044	−0.180	n.a.	−1.199	0.997	n.a.	−0.165	n.a.	n.a.	0.113	0.133	n.a.	8	1081.184	0.621
5	0.027	n.a.	n.a.	−1.091	0.887	−0.149	−0.165	0.157	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	7	1081.220	0.656
6	0.170	−0.176	n.a.	−1.177	0.953	n.a.	−0.149	0.126	+	0.153	0.139	n.a.	10	1081.544	0.981
7	0.036	−0.182	n.a.	−1.205	0.974	n.a.	−0.162	0.129	n.a.	0.081	n.a.	n.a.	8	1081.554	0.991
8	0.049	−0.186	n.a.	−1.278	1.074	n.a.	−0.167	0.132	n.a.	0.077	n.a.	−0.111	9	1081.588	1.025
9	0.007	n.a.	n.a.	−1.060	0.886	n.a.	−0.151	0.135	n.a.	0.081	n.a.	n.a.	7	1081.638	1.074
10	0.050	−0.179	n.a.	−1.240	1.039	n.a.	−0.156	0.135	n.a.	0.078	0.114	−0.078	10	1081.714	1.151
11	−0.059	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	−0.126	0.161	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	4	1082.006	1.443