Table 2.

Factors affecting the survival to the end of summer, assessed at 1 April (i.e. start of autumn) for (a) red-winged fairy-wrens and (b) white-browed scrubwrens captured during the spring and summer months (October–March) between 1977 and 2014. Shown are coefficients and their standard errors (s.e.) for variables included in the 10 top models with ΔAICc less than 2, following model selection based on AICc. In addition, the last model in each table shows the top model from the set of models that do not include any ECE or mean climate effects. Variables identified as important in the best model have 95% CIs of estimated coefficients that do not overlap zero and are shown in italics. Models were ranked by ΔAICc values. n.a. represents variables that were not included in the model. + indicates that a variable was included in model.

(a) red-winged fairy-wrens
model	intercept	catch effort	NHotDryDays (direct)	NHotDryDays2 (direct)	NColdWetDays (carry-over)	NColdWetDays2 (carry-over)	total annual rainfall	NDays from capture to Oct1	age	sex (male)	body size	body size × NHotDryDays (direct)	body size × NColdWetDays (carry-over)	d.f.	AICc	ΔAICc
1	−0.319 ± 0.370	+	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.179 ± 0.070	0.185 ± 0.082	0.570 ± 0.133	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	7	1492.398	0.000
2	−0.301	+	−0.023	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.186	0.209	+	−0.058	0.159	n.a.	10	1493.789	1.391
3	−0.323	+	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.181	0.191	+	−0.040	n.a.	n.a.	8	1494.223	1.825
4	−0.309	+	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	−0.064	n.a.	0.178	0.185	+	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	8	1494.291	1.893
5	−0.545	+	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.161	0.173	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	5	1495.621	3.223

(b) white-browed scrubwrens
model	intercept	NHotDryDays (direct)	NHotDryDays2 (direct)	NColdWetDays (carry-over)	NColdWetDays2 (carry-over)	total annual rainfall	NDays from capture to Oct1	age	sex (male)	body size	body size × NHotDryDays (direct)	body size × NColdWetDays (carry-over)	d.f.	AICc	ΔAICc
1	0.104 ± 0.156	n.a.	n.a.	0.178 ± 0.157	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.240 ± 0.106	n.a.	−0.296 ± 0.115	5	618.633	0.000
2	0.112	n.a.	n.a.	0.112	n.a.	−0.182	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.239	n.a.	−0.295	6	619.306	0.673
3	0.098	n.a.	n.a.	0.168	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.112	n.a.	0.224	n.a.	−0.295	6	619.604	0.970
4	−0.045	n.a.	n.a.	0.190	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	+	0.164	n.a.	−0.299	6	619.715	1.082
5	−0.094	n.a.	n.a.	0.182	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.141	+	0.122	n.a.	−0.298	7	620.149	1.516
6	−0.049	n.a.	n.a.	0.121	n.a.	−0.194	n.a.	n.a.	+	0.157	n.a.	−0.297	7	620.206	1.572
7	0.114	n.a.	n.a.	−0.168	0.367	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.236	n.a.	−0.307	6	620.222	1.589
8	0.109	n.a.	n.a.	0.179	n.a.	n.a.	−0.068	n.a.	n.a.	0.239	n.a.	−0.292	6	620.272	1.638
9	0.107	n.a.	n.a.	0.106	n.a.	−0.175	n.a.	0.104	n.a.	0.224	n.a.	−0.294	7	620.425	1.792
10	0.105	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	0.262	n.a.	n.a.	3	622.787	4.154