Table 4.

Estimated risk transition probability with and without intervention and medical utilization.

	Behavioral health risk measured at two times (T1 and T2)	T1-T2 Utilization Cost Ratiob				KNHIC population without intervention			KN HIC population with a simulated intervention at minimal levela
			Risk state at T3			Risk state at T3
T1	T2		Low	Medium	High	Low	Medium	High
Low	Low	1.00	0.81	0.15	0.04	0.97	0.03	0.00c
	Medium	1.14	0.53	0.34	0.13	0.69	0.11	0.20
	High	1.58	0.38	0.32	0.30	0.65	0.34	0.01
Medium	Low	1.16	0.60	0.30	0.10	0.65	0.33	0.02
	Medium	1.23	0.35	0.44	0.21	0.39	0.32	0.29
	High	1.52	0.23	0.35	0.42	0.05	0.73	0.22
High	Low	1.51	0.46	0.31	0.23	0.34	0.65	0.01
	Medium	1.52	0.25	0.38	0.37	0.34	0.65	0.01
	High	1.79	0.14	0.27	0.59	0.16	0.30	0.54

^aRisk transition probability was estimated using Markov model order 2, adjusted for age and gender distribution of KNHIC.

^bComparing average cost in each T1-T2 risk state pair (e.g. high-medium) to that of the low-low (T1-T2).

^cAll probabilities were rounded off at the 3^rd decimal place (i.e.0.0014).