Table 4.
Outcomes of Next Generation(s) in 1870–80
| (0) | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sons of Lottery-Eligible Men
|
Grandchildren |
|||||||||||
| Match to list of winners: |
Linked to 1880 census |
Linked to 1870 census |
Unable to read and write |
Occup. Score |
Total Wealth ($) |
Wealth Positive |
Natural log of Wealth |
Unable to read and write |
Enrolled in school |
Number children under 10 |
Number children under 18 |
|
| 1. Estimates of the effect of father or grandfather winning the lottery | ||||||||||||
| Panel A: Basic Specification | ||||||||||||
| Binary | 0.040 (0.008) *** | 0.036 (0.008) *** | 0.003 (0.009) | −0.230 (0.304) | −13.2 (70.9) | −0.032 (0.013) ** | −0.036 (0.032) | −0.004 (0.014) | −0.021 (0.012) * | −0.055 (0.041) | −0.097 (0.060) | |
| 1/n | 0.038 (0.008) *** | 0.029 (0.008) *** | 0.006 (0.009) | −0.226 (0.304) | −47.3 (72.3) | −0.027 (0.013) ** | −0.030 (0.032) | 0.003 (0.013) | −0.012 (0.012) | −0.059 (0.041) | −0.089 (0.059) | |
| Panel B: Control for Surname Fixed Effects | ||||||||||||
| Binary | 0.030 (0.008) *** | 0.029 (0.008) *** | 0.006 (0.010) | −0.217 (0.365) | 53.4 (68.8) | −0.021 (0.015) | −0.004 (0.037) | −0.006 (0.014) | −0.026 (0.013) ** | −0.044 (0.046) | −0.086 (0.066) | |
| 1/n | 0.029 (0.008) *** | 0.025 (0.008) *** | 0.010 (0.010) | −0.184 (0.362) | 24.2 (68.3) | −0.021 (0.014) | −0.007 (0.037) | 0.001 (0.014) | −0.020 (0.013) | −0.051 (0.046) | −0.076 (0.066) | |
| Panel C: Control for Surname Effects and Length of Given Name | ||||||||||||
| Binary | 0.015 (0.009) | 0.014 (0.010) | 0.014 (0.012) | 0.190 (0.440) | 112.3 (82.6) | −0.006 (0.019) | 0.050 (0.048) | −0.005 (0.016) | −0.032 (0.014) ** | −0.049 (0.056) | −0.120 (0.079) | |
| 1/n | 0.015 (0.009) | 0.008 (0.009) | 0.019 (0.011) | 0.284 (0.435) | 73.7 (82.6) | −0.005 (0.018) | 0.048 (0.048) | 0.007 (0.016) | −0.024 (0.014) * | −0.055 (0.055) | −0.099 (0.079) | |
| 2. Estimation sample | ||||||||||||
| Children in 1850 [N=40024] | Children in 1850, if adult in 1870 [N=38529] | 1850 children as adults in 1880 [N=14963] | 1850 children as adults in 1880 [N=14956] | 1850 children as adults in 1870 [N=12235] | 1850 children as adults in 1870 [N=12235] | 1850 children as adults in 1870 [N=12235] | Children in 1880, 10–19 years old [N=23544] | Children in 1880, ages 5–19 [N=40658] | 1850 children as adults in 1880 [N=14963] | 1850 children as adults in 1880 [N=14963] | ||
Notes: This table displays OLS estimates of equation (1) in the text. Each cell presents results from a separate regression, and only the coefficient on winning the lottery is reported. The basic specification (shown in Panel A) includes dummies for the 1850 ages of the lottery-eligible man and his children. Specifications with grandchildren also include dummies for their 1880 age x gender. The specification used in Panel B also includes fixed effects for surname (soundex), and the specification in Panel C adds to this dummies for the length (number of letters) of the given name. The base sample of children in 1850 is as described in prior tables, and this sample is used in Columns 1 and 2 to estimate the differential probability of linkage to 1870 and 1880 censuses. The samples in the remaining columns are drawn from the 1870 or 1880 households of those male children linked from 1850. The dependent variables are indicated in the column headings. For the binary lottery-status variable, a household is coded as a lottery winner if the head is a unique match to a name found on the list of winners published by Smith (1838); anyone else in the sample is coded to zero. The second measure takes individuals that “tie” for a match to the Smith list with (n-1) other observations and recodes them to 1/n. A single asterisk denotes statistical significance at the 90% confidence level; double 95% and triple 99%. All standard errors are heteroskedasticity robust and clustered on the lottery-eligible man if there are multiple observations per household. Data sources and additional variable and sample definitions are found in the text.