Table 3.
Estimated palliative care need in England and Wales, 2014–2040, using two different projection methods
| Deaths potentially requiring palliative care | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | ||
| All deaths | 501,424 | 499,838 | 546,768 | 628,659 | |
| Projection method 1a | n (%) | 376,068 (75.0) | 374,879 (75.0) | 410,076 (75.0) | 471,494 (75.0) |
| Projection method 2 (constant proportion)b | n (%) | 375,398 (74.9) | 374,648 (75.0) | 410,018 (75.0) | 469,305 (74.9) |
| Projection method 2 (annual change 2006–2014)c | n (%) | 375,398 (74.9) | 384,343 (76.6) | 441,625 (80.4) | 537,240 (85.0) |
| Projection method 2 (annual change 2011–2014)d | n (%) | 375,398 (74.9) | 385,977 (77.3) | 447,688 (82.6) | 550,734 (87.1) |
aProjection method 1: 75% of all deaths [5, 26]
bProjection method 2 (constant proportion: proportion of all deaths requiring palliative care according to included International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 codes, assuming this proportion remains the same as in 2014
cProjection method 2 (annual change 2006–2014) projection of mean annual change in proportion needing palliative care according to ICD-10 estimate from 2006 to 2014
dProjection method 2 (annual change 2011–2014): projection of mean annual change in ICD-10 estimate from 2011 to 2014