Table 6. Summary of scenario parameters and efficiency changes.

	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3	Scenario 4
Building turnover	Current rate51	Current rate51	Current rate51 × 10	Current rate51 × 10
Population	22.5% by 2060 (ref. 8)	22.5% by 2060 (ref. 8)	22.5% by 2060 (ref. 8)	22.5% by 2060 (ref. 8)
A/C saturation	CDD adoption curve1	CDD adoption curve1	CDD adoption curve1	CDD Adoption Curve1
A/C turnover	Purchase trends72	Purchase trends72–electric only	Heat pump incentives	High-efficiency heat pumps
Lighting	−80% by 2060	−80% by 2060	−90% by 2060	−95% by 2060
TV/computer	−30% by 2060	−30% by 2060	−50% by 2060	−70% by 2060
Water heating	−20% by 2060, shift to electric from purchase trends	−20% by 2060, shift to electric for all new DHW	−40% by 2060, shift to electric for all new DHW	−60% by 2060, shift to electric for all new DHW
Refrigerators	−30% by 2060	−30% by 2060	−50% by 2060	−70% by 2060
Plug loads	+1% per year	+1% per year	+0.5% per year	+0.25% per year
Freezer	−30% by 2060	−30% by 2060	−50% by 2060	−70% by 2060
Microwave	−50% by 2060	−50% by 2060	−75% by 2060	−80% by 2060

A/C, air conditioning; CDD, cooling degree day; DHW, domestic hot water heating.