Table 3.
Adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for cardiovascular disease in women in the derivation cohort
| Predictor variables | Model A* | Model B† | Model C‡ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Townsend score (per 5 unit increase)§ | 1.48 (1.46 to 1.51) | 1.47 (1.45 to 1.50) | 1.47 (1.45 to 1.50) |
| Ethnic origin: | |||
| White or not recorded | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Indian | 1.32 (1.26 to 1.38) | 1.32 (1.26 to 1.39) | 1.32 (1.26 to 1.39) |
| Pakistani | 1.76 (1.66 to 1.87) | 1.76 (1.66 to 1.87) | 1.76 (1.66 to 1.86) |
| Bangladeshi | 1.33 (1.23 to 1.44) | 1.35 (1.25 to 1.46) | 1.34 (1.24 to 1.45) |
| Other Asian | 1.07 (0.985 to 1.16) | 1.08 (0.995 to 1.17) | 1.08 (0.992 to 1.17) |
| Black Caribbean | 0.836 (0.791 to 0.884) | 0.844 (0.798 to 0.892) | 0.843 (0.797 to 0.891) |
| Black African | 0.660 (0.605 to 0.721) | 0.677 (0.620 to 0.740) | 0.675 (0.618 to 0.737) |
| Chinese | 0.710 (0.612 to 0.823) | 0.726 (0.625 to 0.842) | 0.722 (0.622 to 0.837) |
| Other | 0.836 (0.786 to 0.890) | 0.843 (0.792 to 0.897) | 0.843 (0.791 to 0.897) |
| Smoking status§: | |||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Former smoker | 1.16 (1.12 to 1.19) | 1.14 (1.11 to 1.18) | 1.14 (1.11 to 1.18) |
| Light smoker | 1.79 (1.73 to 1.85) | 1.76 (1.70 to 1.82) | 1.75 (1.70 to 1.81) |
| Moderate smoker | 1.98 (1.91 to 2.05) | 1.95 (1.88 to 2.02) | 1.95 (1.88 to 2.02) |
| Heavy smoker | 2.39 (2.30 to 2.49) | 2.34 (2.25 to 2.44) | 2.34 (2.25 to 2.43) |
| Medical characteristics: | |||
| Family history of coronary heart disease in first degree relative <60 years§ | 1.59 (1.56 to 1.63) | 1.58 (1.54 to 1.61) | 1.58 (1.54 to 1.61) |
| Type 1 diabetes§ | 5.66 (5.11 to 6.26) | 5.66 (5.12 to 6.26) | 5.62 (5.08 to 6.22) |
| Type 2 diabetes§ | 2.95 (2.76 to 3.15) | 2.92 (2.73 to 3.13) | 2.91 (2.72 to 3.11) |
| Treated hypertension§ | 1.75 (1.68 to 1.82) | 1.71 (1.64 to 1.78) | 1.66 (1.60 to 1.73) |
| Rheumatoid arthritis | 1.32 (1.28 to 1.36) | 1.24 (1.21 to 1.28) | 1.24 (1.20 to 1.27) |
| Atrial fibrillation§ | 5.09 (4.35 to 5.95) | 4.94 (4.23 to 5.78) | 4.92 (4.20 to 5.75) |
| Chronic kidney disease (stage 4 or 5)§ | 2.31 (2.02 to 2.65) | NA | NA |
| Chronic kidney disease (stage 3, 4, or 5)§ | NA | 1.94 (1.72 to 2.19) | 1.92 (1.70 to 2.17) |
| Migraine§ | NA | 1.36 (1.31 to 1.41) | 1.35 (1.30 to 1.40) |
| Corticosteroid use§ | NA | 1.82 (1.74 to 1.90) | 1.81 (1.74 to 1.89) |
| Systemic lupus erythematosus§ | NA | 2.15 (1.79 to 2.57) | 2.14 (1.78 to 2.56) |
| Atypical antipsychotic use | NA | 1.29 (1.21 to 1.38) | 1.29 (1.21 to 1.37) |
| Severe mental illness | NA | 1.14 (1.11 to 1.16) | 1.13 (1.11 to 1.16) |
| Total cholesterol: HDL cholesterol ratio (per unit increase) | 1.17 (1.16 to 1.17) | 1.17 (1.16 to 1.17) | 1.17 (1.16 to 1.17) |
| Systolic blood pressure (per 20 unit increase) | 1.14 (1.14 to 1.15) | 1.15 (1.14 to 1.15) | 1.14 (1.13 to 1.15) |
| Standard deviation of blood pressure (per 10 unit increase) | NA | NA | 1.08 (1.07 to 1.09) |
NA=not applicable; HDL=high density lipoprotein.
*Includes chronic kidney disease (stage 4 or 5) fractional polynomial terms for age (age and age−2) and body mass index (BMI−2 and BMI−2ln(BMI)), and interactions with age for body mass index, systolic blood pressure, Townsend score, family history of coronary heart disease, treated hypertension, atrial fibrillation, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and smoking status.
†Same as model A with chronic kidney disease (stage 3, 4, or 5), extra variables listed in table, and additional age interactions for: migraine, corticosteroid use, and systemic lupus erythematosus.
‡Same as model B but with standard deviation of systolic blood pressure.
§Interaction with age; hazard ratios evaluated at mean age.