Fig. 1.

Idealized examples of the primary metrics targeted by our attribution analysis. (A) The contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude. (B) The uncertainty in the event return interval in the original time series. (C) The uncertainty in the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability. (D) Comparison of the observed interannual variability with the interannual variability simulated by the climate model. (E) The probability of the observed trend in the Historical Climate Model Simulations. (F) The uncertainty in the contribution of the historical forcing to the event probability.