Exhibit 4. Absolute (ml/capita/day) and relative differences (%) between counterfactuals and post-tax volumes of taxed and untaxed beverage purchases stratified by SES.

SES Level	2014	2015	Average
Taxed Beverages
Lowest
Absolute difference	-18.8*	-29.3*	-24.0
Relative difference	-9.0%	-14.3%	-11.7%
Middle
Absolute difference	-12.8*	-23.3*	-18.0
Relative difference	-5.9%	-11.7%	-8.8%
Highest
Absolute difference	-6.9*	-8.2*	-7.6
Relative difference	-4.4%	-5.6%	-5.1%
All
Absolute difference	-10.6*	-17.2*	-13.9
Relative difference	-5.5%	-9.7%	-7.6%
Untaxed Beverages
Lowest
Absolute difference	15.9*	-46.3*	-15.2
Relative difference	2.4%	-5.9%	-1.8%
Middle
Absolute difference	48.5*	-8.8	19.9
Relative difference	5.6%	-1.2%	2.1%
Highest
Absolute difference	39.1	-11.9	13.6
Relative difference	4.5%	-1.5%	1.2%
All
Absolute difference	43.2	-7.0	18.1
Relative difference	5.3%	-1.0%	2.1%

Source: Authors' own analyses and calculations based on data from Nielsen though its Mexico Consumer Panel Service (CPS) for the food and beverage categories for January 2012–December 2015 (The Nielsen Company, 2016). Nielsen is not responsible for and had no role in preparing the results reported herein.

Notes: Models adjusted for household size and composition, seasonality, education of the head of the household, household socioeconomic status and macroeconomic variables. Counterfactual estimated based on pre-tax trends.

^*Differences in absolute values comparing the post-tax periods with the counterfactuals were all statistically significant at p<0.01.

^§excludes dairy beverages due to incomplete data from Jan -September 2012.