Table 1.
Parameters | Point Estimation (%) | Interval Estimation (%) | Ref. | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Transition Probabilities in Disease Progress | ||||
Proportion of Symptomatic Acute Hepatitis B in total Acute Hepatitis B | 30.00 | — | 11 | |
Proportion of Fulminant Hepatitis B in Symptomatic Acute Hepatitis B | Age<20 | 0.10 | 0.10–0.60 | 8, 35 |
Age≥20 | 0.50 | 0.10–0.60 | ||
Mortality of Fulminant Hepatitis B | Age<15 | 63.00 | — | 8, 35 |
Age<45 | 80.00 | |||
Age≥45 | 92.00 | |||
Proportion of Fulminant Hepatitis B becaming Carriers | 6.25 | — | 22 | |
Proportion of Acute Hepatitis B became Carriers | — | 23 | ||
Natural Clearance of HBV Carriers | 1.80 | 1.47–1.80 | 24, 25 | |
Probability of HBV Carriers became CHB | 0.38 | 0.38–3.00 | 24, 25 | |
Probability of HBV Carriers became CC | 0.25 | — | 26 | |
Probability of HBV Carriers became HCC | 0.36 | — | 27 | |
Mortality of HBV Carriers due to HBV Infection | 0.73 | — | 25 | |
Natural Clearance of CHB | 1.20 | — | 28 | |
Probability of CHB became CC | 1.16 | 0.84–3.25 | 29 | |
Probability of CHB became HCC | 0.68 | 0.45–0.68 | 30, 31 | |
Mortality of CHB due to HBV Infection | 0.77 | 0.77–1.58 | 32, 33 | |
Probability of CC became DC | 3.56 | 2.51–4.98 | 33 | |
Probability of CC became HCC | 0.28 | 0.06–3.25 | 32, 33 | |
Mortality of CC due to HBV Infection | 3.52 | 2.43–4.87 | 32, 33 | |
Probability of DC became HCC | 0.82 | 0.34–3.25 | 32, 33 | |
Mortality of DC due to HBV Infection | 15.96 | 15.96–39.32 | 32, 34 | |
Probability of DC receiving Liver Transplantation | 0.15 | 0.00–0.40 | 35 | |
Mortality of HCC Due to HBV Infection | 80.35 | 48.52–80.35 | 34, 36 | |
Probability of HCC Receiving Liver Transplantation | 0.08 | 0.08–0.10 | 35 | |
Mortality of LT-1 | 22.42 | 22.42–28.32 | 37 | |
Mortality of LT-2 | 13.78 | 13.78–13.92 | 37 | |
Costs of Treatments After HBV Infection (Per Year Per Person) | ||||
HBV Carriers | 110.23 | — | 38 | |
Symptomatic Acute HBV Infection | 2632.15 | 2632.15–5285.22 | 38–40 | |
Fulminant Hepatitis B | 11163.49 | — | 39 | |
CHB | 3051.69 | 730.52–3051.69 | 38–40 | |
CC | 4699.74 | 2224.89–4699.74 | 38, 39 | |
DC | 7176.04 | 4528.10–7176.04 | 38, 39 | |
HCC | 10568.54 | 6493.13–10568.54 | 38–40 | |
LT-1 | 38659.00 | — | 41 | |
LT-2 | 3381.46 | — | 41 | |
Costs of the Catch-up Program (Per Dose)* | ||||
Vaccines and Single-Use Syringe | 0.34 | — | Program files | |
Surveillance | 0.29 | — | 12 | |
Staff Remuneration, Training, Supervision, Administration | 0.18 | Program files | ||
Transportation | 0.23 | — | 12 | |
Publicity | 0.12 | — | 12 | |
Cold Chain | 0.09 | — | 12 | |
Other Equipment | 0.13 | — | 12 | |
HRQoL of the Targeted Population | ||||
General Population | 0.848 | 17 | ||
HBV Carriers | 0.813 | — | 15 | |
Symptomatic Acute Hepatitis B | 0.739 | — | 19 | |
CHB | 0.789 | — | 15 | |
Liver Transplantation | 0.766 | — | 42 | |
CC | 0.763 | — | 15 | |
HCC | 0.699 | — | 15 | |
DC | 0.661 | — | 15 | |
Other Parameters | ||||
Prevalence Proportion with Previous Vaccination | 4.30 | 2.69–5.91 | 20 | |
Prevalence Proportion without Previous Vaccination | 4.95 | 1.27–8.63 | 20 | |
Natural Immunization Proportion | 36.75 | 31.26–43.24 | 20 | |
Anti-HBs Positive Conversion Rate with 1 Dose | 14.50 | — | 43 | |
Anti-HBs Positive Conversion Rate with 2 Doses | 81.00 | 79.5–82.9 | 43, 44 | |
Anti-HBs Positive Conversion Rate with 3 Doses | 98.10 | — | 45 | |
Proportion of HBV Susceptible Persons with 0 Previous Dose | 58.30 | 31.51–67.47 | — | |
Proportion of HBV Susceptible Persons with 1 Previous Doses | 50.40 | 43.48–56.47 | — | |
Proportion of HBV Susceptible Persons with 2 Previous Doses | 11.20 | 9.66-12.55 | — | |
Proportion of HBV Susceptible Persons with 3 Previous Doses | 1.12 | 9.66–12.55 | — | |
All-Cause Mortality | — | — | 46 | |
Discount Rate | 0.03 | 0–0.07 | 6 | |
The proportion of HBV Susceptible Persons Becoming HBV Infectious Each Year | 0.000756 | 0.00020–0.00500 | NNDRS |
CC: Compensated cirrhosis; CHB: Chronic hepatitis B; DC: Decompensated cirrhosis; HBs: Hepatitis B surface; HBV: Hepatitis B virus; HCC: Hepatocellular carcinoma; HRQoL: Health-Related Quality of Life; LT-1: The year of liver transplantation; LT-2: Years after liver transplantation; NNDRS: National Notifiable Disease Reporting System.