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. 2014 Nov 1;10(10):2983–2991. doi: 10.4161/hv.29944

Table 1.

Point and Interval Estimation of Parameters in the Markov Model

Parameters Point Estimation (%) Interval Estimation (%) Ref.
Transition Probabilities in Disease Progress        
 Proportion of Symptomatic Acute Hepatitis B in total Acute Hepatitis B   30.00 11
 Proportion of Fulminant Hepatitis B in Symptomatic Acute Hepatitis B Age<20 0.10 0.10–0.60 8, 35
  Age≥20 0.50 0.10–0.60  
 Mortality of Fulminant Hepatitis B Age<15 63.00 8, 35
  Age<45 80.00    
  Age≥45 92.00    
 Proportion of Fulminant Hepatitis B becaming Carriers   6.25 22
 Proportion of Acute Hepatitis B became Carriers   e(0.65×age0.46) 23
 Natural Clearance of HBV Carriers   1.80 1.47–1.80 24, 25
 Probability of HBV Carriers became CHB   0.38 0.38–3.00 24, 25
 Probability of HBV Carriers became CC   0.25 26
 Probability of HBV Carriers became HCC   0.36 27
 Mortality of HBV Carriers due to HBV Infection   0.73 25
 Natural Clearance of CHB   1.20 28
 Probability of CHB became CC   1.16 0.84–3.25 29
 Probability of CHB became HCC   0.68 0.45–0.68 30, 31
 Mortality of CHB due to HBV Infection   0.77 0.77–1.58 32, 33
 Probability of CC became DC   3.56 2.51–4.98 33
 Probability of CC became HCC   0.28 0.06–3.25 32, 33
 Mortality of CC due to HBV Infection   3.52 2.43–4.87 32, 33
 Probability of DC became HCC   0.82 0.34–3.25 32, 33
 Mortality of DC due to HBV Infection   15.96 15.96–39.32 32, 34
 Probability of DC receiving Liver Transplantation   0.15 0.00–0.40 35
 Mortality of HCC Due to HBV Infection   80.35 48.52–80.35 34, 36
 Probability of HCC Receiving Liver Transplantation   0.08 0.08–0.10 35
 Mortality of LT-1   22.42 22.42–28.32 37
 Mortality of LT-2   13.78 13.78–13.92 37
Costs of Treatments After HBV Infection (Per Year Per Person)        
 HBV Carriers   110.23 38
 Symptomatic Acute HBV Infection   2632.15 2632.15–5285.22 38–40
 Fulminant Hepatitis B   11163.49 39
 CHB   3051.69 730.52–3051.69 3840
 CC   4699.74 2224.89–4699.74 38, 39
 DC   7176.04 4528.10–7176.04 38, 39
 HCC   10568.54 6493.13–10568.54 3840
 LT-1   38659.00 41
 LT-2   3381.46 41
Costs of the Catch-up Program (Per Dose)*        
 Vaccines and Single-Use Syringe   0.34 Program files
 Surveillance   0.29 12
 Staff Remuneration, Training, Supervision, Administration   0.18   Program files
 Transportation   0.23 12
 Publicity   0.12 12
 Cold Chain   0.09 12
 Other Equipment   0.13 12
HRQoL of the Targeted Population        
 General Population   0.848   17
 HBV Carriers   0.813 15
 Symptomatic Acute Hepatitis B   0.739 19
 CHB   0.789 15
 Liver Transplantation   0.766 42
 CC   0.763 15
 HCC   0.699 15
 DC   0.661 15
Other Parameters        
 Prevalence Proportion with Previous Vaccination   4.30 2.69–5.91 20
 Prevalence Proportion without Previous Vaccination   4.95 1.27–8.63 20
 Natural Immunization Proportion   36.75 31.26–43.24 20
 Anti-HBs Positive Conversion Rate with 1 Dose   14.50 43
 Anti-HBs Positive Conversion Rate with 2 Doses   81.00 79.5–82.9 43, 44
 Anti-HBs Positive Conversion Rate with 3 Doses   98.10 45
 Proportion of HBV Susceptible Persons with 0 Previous Dose   58.30 31.51–67.47
 Proportion of HBV Susceptible Persons with 1 Previous Doses   50.40 43.48–56.47
 Proportion of HBV Susceptible Persons with 2 Previous Doses   11.20 9.66-12.55
 Proportion of HBV Susceptible Persons with 3 Previous Doses   1.12 9.66–12.55
 All-Cause Mortality   46
 Discount Rate   0.03 0–0.07 6
 The proportion of HBV Susceptible Persons Becoming HBV Infectious Each Year   0.000756 0.00020–0.00500 NNDRS

CC: Compensated cirrhosis; CHB: Chronic hepatitis B; DC: Decompensated cirrhosis; HBs: Hepatitis B surface; HBV: Hepatitis B virus; HCC: Hepatocellular carcinoma; HRQoL: Health-Related Quality of Life; LT-1: The year of liver transplantation; LT-2: Years after liver transplantation; NNDRS: National Notifiable Disease Reporting System.