TABLE. Deviance information criterion (DIC) values of the tested models.
| a: Total cases proposed models | ||
|---|---|---|
| Model | #Parameters | DIC |
| Null model | 2 | 233.22 |
| Autoregressive (AR) | 2 | 274.90 |
| Moving average (MA) | 2 | 299.76 |
| Linear trend | 3 | 194.86* |
| Quadratic trend | 4 | 196.22 |
| AR + MA | 3 | 275.78 |
| LTM + AR | 3 | 195.67 |
| LTM + MA | 3 | 196.01 |
| LTM + AR + MA | 4 | 196.33 |
| b: Multibacillary proposed models | ||
| Null model | 1 | 140.52 |
| Autoregressive (AR) | 2 | 136.91 |
| Moving average (MA) | 2 | 138.13 |
| Logit trend model (LTM) | 2 | 127.52* |
| AR + MA | 3 | 136.18 |
| LTM + AR | 3 | 129.62 |
| LTM + MA | 3 | 128.42 |
| LTM + AR + MA | 4 | 129.09 |
| c: DG2 proposed models | ||
| Null model | 2 | 133.03 |
| Lineal multibacillary (LMB) | 3 | 124.45 |
| Lineal time | 3 | 123.87 |
| Autoregressive (AR) | 3 | 139.57 |
| Moving average (MA) | 3 | 139.59 |
| LMB + Time | 4 | 123.49 |
| Time + AR | 4 | 138.91 |
| Time + MA | 4 | 143.61 |
| LMB + AR | 4 | 126.68 |
| LMB + MA | 4 | 126.30 |
| LMB + Delay | 4 | 125.20 |
| LMB + Time + Delay | 5 | 124.70 |
| LMB + Time + AR | 5 | 125.60 |
| LMB + Time + MA | 5 | 124.97 |
| Time + ARMA | 5 | 139.49 |
| LMB + Delay + AR | 5 | 119.94* |
| LMB + Delay + MA | 5 | 127.11 |
| LMB + Delay + ARMA | 6 | 126.16 |
Number of parameters and DIC for the models proposed for the number of DG2 cases. *: the selected model.