Table 1. Model inputs with years of publication for references.
Variable | Non-incarcerated heroin users | Incarcerated heroin users | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Model Input [ref] | Year of citation publication | Model input [ref] | Year of citation publication | |
Number of heroin users | 808,000[18] | 2015 | 200,000[9] | 2007 |
Probability of use treatment | 0.110[19] | 2015 | 0.141[20] | 2007 |
Cost of heroin use disorder treatment | $9,187.08[21] | 2011 | $9,187.08[21] | 2011 |
Probability of HIV infection | 0.070[22] | 2015 | 0.310[23] | 2015 |
Probability of HIV treatment | 0.305[24] | 2013 | 0.333[25] | 2010 |
Cost of HIV treatment | $23,681.71[26] | 2010 | $23,681.71[26] | 2010 |
Probability of having HCV given HIV+ | 0.800[27] | 2014 | 0.700[28] | 2005 |
Probability of having HCV given HIV- | 0.769[29] | 1996 | 0.657[30] | 2005 |
Probability of HCV treatment | 0.160[31] | 2008 | 0.160[31] | 2008 |
Cost of HCV treatment | $81,633.51[32] | 2016 | $81,633.51[32] | 2016 |
Probability of HBV given only HIV+ | 0.071[33] | 2003 | 0.082[34] | 2009 |
Probability of HBV given only HCV+ | 0.081[35] | 2010 | 0.013[34] | 2009 |
Probability of HBV given HIV+ and HCV+ | 0.081[35] | 2010 | 0.082[34] | 2009 |
Probability of HBV given HIV- and HCV- | 0.035[36] | 2011 | 0.082[34] | 2009 |
Probability of HBV treatment | 0.140[37] | 2014 | 0.140[37] | 2014 |
Cost of HBV treatment | $28,817.62[38] | 2004 | $28,817.62[38] | 2004 |
Probability of TB given HIV+ | 0.160[39] | 2008 | 0.160[39] | 2008 |
Probability of TB given no chronic infectious diseases | 0.390[39] | 2008 | 0.390[39] | 2008 |
Probability of TB treatment | 0.050[40, 41] | 2009,2009 | 0.050[40, 41] | 2009,2009 |
Cost of TB treatment | $545.15[42] | 2009 | $545.15[42] | 2009 |
Probability of overdose death while on use treatment | 0.0023[43] | 2015 | 0.0023[43] | 2015 |
Probability of overdose death while not on use treatment | 0.0080[43] | 2015 | 0.0080[43] | 2015 |
Probability of experiencing overdose and living | 0.339[44, 45] | 2013,2009 | 0.339[44, 45] | 2013, 2009 |
Cost to treat each overdose | $3369.71[44] | 2013 | $3369.71[44] | 2013 |
Cost of crime committed by each user | $6795.77[21] | 2011 | N/A | N/A |
Cost of incarceration | N/A | N/A | $30,656.20[46] | 2015 |
Lost productivity by non-incarcerated users who live1 | $4,910.53[21, 47] | 2011, 2014 | N/A | 2011, 2014 |
Lost productivity by non-incarcerated users who die 1 | $28,885.46[21, 47] | 2011, 2014 | N/A | N/A |
Lost productivity by incarcerated users1 | N/A | N/A | $28,885.46[21, 47] | 2011, 2014 |
Probability of Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome treatment | 0.0148[48] | 2015 | 0.0148[48] | 2015 |
Cost of Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome treatment | $68,856.48[49] | 2015 | $68,856.48[49] | 2015 |
Cost of Heroin to User2 | $19,004.32[50] | 2014 | N/A | N/A |
1The median salary was included in the model because an individual would be capable of such earnings if he/she did not have heroin use disorder; in effect, society loses these earnings as the individual is unable to work at the same capacity as a normal member of society
2The cost of heroin to the user is N/A for incarcerated users to reflect that although users may have access to heroin while incarcerated, they are unlikely to be using currency to obtain the heroin; thus, the cost of heroin to user is assumed as $0