Table A15:
Base Case and Sensitivity Analysis Extrapolation of Diabetic Foot Ulcer Recurrence for Patients Whose Ulcers Have Healed
| Year | Transition Probability From Healed State to Unhealed State (Base Case)58 | Transition Probability From Healed State to Unhealed State (Sensitivity Analysis)69 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.37a | 0.35b |
| 2 | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| 3 | 0.20 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 0 | 0 |
a
Sample calculation: Study reports 63% remain ulcer free at 1 year; in other words, recurrence expected in 37% at 1 year.
b
Sample calculation: Study reports 56% remain ulcer free at 2 years; in other words, recurrence expected in 44% 2 years, cumulatively. The incremental recurrence probability is calculated as the difference between the 2-year and 1-year cumulative recurrence rates divided by the percentage of remaining cohort: (0.44 - 0.37)/(1 - 0.37).