Table 18:
Parameters Varied in the Sensitivity Analyses
| Parameter | Base Case | Sensitivity Analysis 1 | Sensitivity Analysis 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual change in prostate cancer incidence | −2.3% | 0 | −4.9% |
| % low- to intermediate-risk localized disease | 80% | 70% | 90% |
| Change in prostate cancer incidence | No change after 2016 | Continue to change after 2016 | |
| Expected uptake of the CCP test | 15% in year 1 | 5% | 30% |
| 25% in year 2 | 10% | 50% | |
| 35% in year 3 | 15% | 70% | |
| 45% in year 4 | 20% | 90% | |
| 55% in year 5 | 25% | 100% | |
| Assumptions regarding the extent that CCP can change treatment | Shore et al 201656 | Crawford et al 201455 | No change |
| Proportion of WW in non-intervention group | 25% | 0% | 50% |
| Unit cost of the CCP test | $4,420 | −20% | |
| Annual cost of AS in year 1 | $1,324 | −50% | +50% |
| Annual cost of AS in year 2 to 5 | $457 | −50% | +50% |
| Annual cost of RP | $18,898 | −50% | +50% |
| Annual cost of RT | $15,648 | −50% | +50% |
| Annual cost of post RP | $2,958 | −50% | +50% |
| Annual cost of post RT | $6,289 | −50% | +50% |
| Annual cost of recurrence | $7,756 | −50% | +50% |
| Number of extra physician visits associated with the CCP test | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Abbreviations: AS, active surveillance; CCP, Prolaris cell cycle progression; RP, radical prostatectomy; RT, radiation therapy; WW, watchful waiting.