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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Jun 1.
Published in final edited form as: Psychol Rev. 2016 May 12;123(4):452–480. doi: 10.1037/rev0000028

Figure 10. Information-theoretical estimate of how good the eight best models are.

Figure 10

Each column represents a subject. For each subject, the green line represents an estimate of the negative entropy of the data, the dashed black line the negative cross-entropy between a coin-flip model and the true model, the blue line an estimate of the negative cross-entropy between the Opt model and the true model, and the grey lines estimates of the negative cross-entropies between other models and the true model. The error bar represents an estimate of the 95% credible interval of the negative cross-entropy between the Opt model and the true model. The estimate of the negative cross-entropy between the Opt model and the true model is not significantly different from the estimate of the negative entropy of the data (one-sided Wilcoxon signed-rank test, p = 0.15), suggesting that the Opt model explains most of the explainable variation. The same holds for the seven other best models (see main text).