Table 2.
Forecast of pediatric malaria admissions at Siaya district hospital, Western Kenya for different prediction lead times by training and test sets including accuracy statistics.
| GAMBOOST | GAM | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy measure | ||||
| 1-Month Lead | Training (2003–2012) | Test (2013) | Training (2003–2012) | Test (2013) |
| R2 | 0·80 | 0·71 | 0·77 | 0·44 |
| MAE | 14·53 | 2·98 | 15·33 | 5·26 |
| RMSE | 19·09 | 3·87 | 20·06 | 6·38 |
| NMSE | 0·06 | 0·07 | 0·06 | 0·18 |
| NMAE | 0·21 | 0·22 | 0·22 | 0·38 |
| 2-Month Lead | ||||
| R2 | 0·71 | 0·56 | 0·72 | 0·37 |
| MAE | 16·69 | 3·74 | 16·18 | 5·86 |
| RMSE | 22·81 | 4·38 | 22·33 | 6·99 |
| NMSE | 0·08 | 0·08 | 0·08 | 0·21 |
| NMAE | 0·24 | 0·27 | 0·24 | 0·42 |
| 3-Month Lead | ||||
| R2 | 0·73 | 0·50 | 0·74 | 0·16 |
| MAE | 16·50 | 4·19 | 15·77 | 6·70 |
| RMSE | 22·31 | 5·50 | 21·45 | 8·12 |
| NMSE | 0·08 | 0·13 | 0·07 | 0·29 |
| NMAE | 0·24 | 0·30 | 0·23 | 0·48 |