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. 2017 May 22;8:15423. doi: 10.1038/ncomms15423

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Copyright © 2017, The Author(s)

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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Empirical relationship between deep-ocean temperatures and global mean surface temperatures, as determined by Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs from the literature (coloured circles) and proxy data (coloured circles with error bars). The red regions are unphysical because the ocean is frozen or the deep ocean is warmer than the surface. The dotted line is the best fit to the proxies, T_D=1.02T_S−16.67, and the grey-shaded region is the range of T_D–T_S relationships considered in our model. See Supplementary Note 1 for full references, estimation of error bars, and further explanation.