Table 1.
Medicare Population 1999 to 2013 – Demographic Features, Comorbidities, and Hospitalizations.
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare population, age ≥65 years | |||||||||||||||
| Total number of Medicare beneficiaries (aged ≥ 65) | 33,540,416 | 33,778,395 | 33,985,556 | 34,185,146 | 34,427,443 | 34,758,077 | 35,187,050 | 35,628,663 | 36,204,221 | 37,043,742 | 37,947,575 | 38,813,636 | 39,612,090 | 40,873,237 | 42,474,269 |
| Mean age, year (standard deviation) | 75.1 (7.4) | 75.2 (7.4) | 75.2 (7.4) | 75.3 (7.5) | 75.3 (7.5) | 75.3 (7.5) | 75.3 (7.6) | 75.3 (7.6) | 75.3 (7.7) | 75.2 (7.7) | 75.1 (7.8) | 75.1 (7.8) | 75.1 (7.8) | 74.9 (7.8) | 74.7 (7.8) |
| Female sex, % | 59.1 | 58.9 | 58.7 | 58.6 | 58.4 | 58.1 | 58.0 | 57.7 | 57.5 | 57.3 | 57.0 | 56.8 | 56.6 | 56.3 | 56.1 |
| Race, % | |||||||||||||||
| White | 86.5 | 87.0 | 86.8 | 86.5 | 86.4 | 86.2 | 85.9 | 85.7 | 85.5 | 85.3 | 85.2 | 84.9 | 84.6 | 84.3 | 83.9 |
| Black | 7.8 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Other | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.6 |
| Dual eligible, % | 11.5 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 12.8 |
| All-cause annual death, % | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Medicare Fee-for-Service Population | |||||||||||||||
| Enrolled in Fee-for-Service for ≥1 month (#) | 27,552,139 | 27,745,895 | 28,591,646 | 29,284,512 | 29,689,923 | 30,000,107 | 30,187,136 | 29,788,694 | 29,001,434 | 28,763,911 | 28,669,816 | 29,011,553 | 29,162,587 | 29,541,324 | 30,148,234 |
| Proportion of total Medicare population (%) | 82.1 | 82.1 | 84.1 | 85.7 | 86.2 | 86.3 | 85.8 | 83.6 | 80.1 | 77.6 | 75.6 | 74.7 | 73.6 | 72.3 | 71.0 |
| Person-years of Fee-For Service enrollment | 26,147,690 | 26,428,721 | 27,196,165 | 27,977,751 | 28,443,557 | 28,722,464 | 28,764,927 | 28,062,803 | 27,514,260 | 27,291,534 | 27,341,658 | 27,694,716 | 27,956,099 | 28,289,986 | 28,834,706 |
| Mean age, year (standard deviation) | 75.3 (7.5) | 75.3 (7.5) | 75.3 (7.5) | 75.3 (7.5) | 75.3 (7.6) | 75.3 (7.6) | 75.3 (7.6) | 75.3 (7.7) | 75.3 (7.8) | 75.3 (7.8) | 75.2 (7.9) | 75.2 (7.9) | 75.1 (7.9) | 75 (8) | 74.8 (8) |
| Female sex, % | 59.4 | 59.1 | 58.8 | 58.5 | 58.3 | 58.0 | 57.9 | 57.6 | 57.4 | 57.1 | 56.8 | 56.6 | 56.3 | 56.0 | 55.7 |
| Race, % | |||||||||||||||
| White | 86.7 | 87.1 | 87.0 | 86.8 | 86.6 | 86.4 | 86.2 | 86.2 | 86.1 | 86.0 | 85.8 | 85.5 | 85.2 | 84.9 | 84.6 |
| Black | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Other | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Dual eligible, % | 13.0 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 13.6 | 13.2 |
| At least 1 month enrollment in Medicare Advantage, % | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| All-cause annual death, % | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Comorbidities (per 100,000 person-years) for Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries | |||||||||||||||
| History of heart failure | 2,552 | 2,592 | 2,596 | 2,582 | 2,602 | 2,642 | 2,638 | 2,556 | 2,503 | 2,357 | 2,274 | 2,239 | 2,237 | 2,141 | 2,048 |
| History of myocardial infarction | 489 | 504 | 524 | 519 | 520 | 504 | 480 | 459 | 447 | 449 | 433 | 417 | 411 | 393 | 378 |
| Hypertension | 10,543 | 11,106 | 11,681 | 12,060 | 12,356 | 12,666 | 12,786 | 12,504 | 13,054 | 13,177 | 12,864 | 12,726 | 12,849 | 12,505 | 11,623 |
| Diabetes | 4,733 | 4,879 | 5,032 | 5,142 | 5,242 | 5,336 | 5,445 | 5,362 | 5,356 | 5,334 | 5,278 | 5,249 | 5,337 | 5,207 | 4,972 |
| Chronic atherosclerosis | 6,694 | 6,826 | 6,972 | 7,027 | 7,042 | 7,053 | 7,003 | 6,790 | 6,618 | 6,504 | 6,195 | 5,958 | 5,937 | 5,635 | 5,140 |
| Stroke | 453 | 445 | 435 | 421 | 402 | 384 | 373 | 363 | 350 | 345 | 334 | 330 | 326 | 311 | 298 |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 4,466 | 4,452 | 4,503 | 4,578 | 4,627 | 4,662 | 4,746 | 4,641 | 4,515 | 3,995 | 3,777 | 3,703 | 3,744 | 3,580 | 3,414 |
| Asthma | 477 | 512 | 539 | 570 | 597 | 625 | 666 | 667 | 643 | 648 | 636 | 622 | 644 | 637 | 615 |
| Pneumonia | 1,937 | 1,985 | 1,942 | 2,028 | 2,048 | 2,113 | 2,176 | 2,155 | 2,192 | 2,425 | 2,369 | 2,346 | 2,373 | 2,277 | 2,277 |
| Trauma, past year | 1,727 | 1,767 | 1,864 | 1,951 | 1,995 | 2,020 | 2,036 | 2,009 | 1,916 | 1,918 | 1,658 | 1,621 | 1,708 | 1,533 | 1,410 |
| Chronic liver disease | 230 | 233 | 236 | 244 | 249 | 253 | 252 | 250 | 252 | 239 | 240 | 250 | 266 | 273 | 279 |
| Cancer | 2,502 | 2,482 | 2,492 | 2,478 | 2,434 | 2,397 | 2,364 | 2,312 | 2,289 | 2,263 | 2,185 | 2,117 | 2,099 | 2,018 | 1,927 |
| Hospitalization (per 100,000 person-years) for Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries | |||||||||||||||
| Number of hospitalizations | 35,274 | 35,412 | 35,682 | 35,328 | 35,060 | 34,655 | 34,368 | 33,538 | 33,050 | 32,603 | 31,169 | 30,677 | 29,941 | 29,460 | 26,930 |
| 1 or more hospitalizations | 21,782 | 21,760 | 21,829 | 21,660 | 21,464 | 21,272 | 21,167 | 20,703 | 20,387 | 20,087 | 19,495 | 19,227 | 18,811 | 18,248 | 17,344 |
| Hospitalizations for major surgical care | 3,784 | 3,751 | 3,780 | 3,746 | 3,711 | 3,749 | 3,699 | 3,614 | 3,572 | 3,515 | 3,420 | 3,363 | 3,229 | 3,102 | 3,105 |
| Mortality (per 100 beneficiaries) among hospitalized patients for Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries | |||||||||||||||
| In-hospital mortality (%) | 1.30 | 1.26 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.13 | 1.06 | 1.02 | 0.95 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| 30-day all-cause mortality (%) | 2.16 | 2.11 | 2.08 | 2.07 | 2.02 | 1.93 | 1.92 | 1.83 | 1.81 | 1.83 | 1.76 | 1.74 | 1.73 | 1.67 | 1.65 |
| 1-year all-cause mortality (%) | 4.49 | 4.41 | 4.41 | 4.33 | 4.25 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 3.92 | 3.93 | 3.90 | 3.76 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3.65 | 3.48 |
| Medicare Advantage population | |||||||||||||||
| Enrolled in Medicare Advantage for all 12 months (#) | 5,988,277 | 6,032,500 | 5,393,910 | 4,900,634 | 4,737,520 | 4,757,970 | 4,999,914 | 5,839,969 | 7,202,787 | 8,279,831 | 9,277,759 | 9,802,083 | 10,449,503 | 11,331,913 | 12,326,035 |
| Proportion of total Medicare population, % | 17.9 | 17.9 | 15.9 | 14.3 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 14.2 | 16.4 | 19.9 | 22.4 | 24.4 | 25.3 | 26.4 | 27.7 | 29.0 |
| Mean age, year (standard deviation) | 74.3 (6.8) | 74.4 (6.8) | 74.7 (6.9) | 75 (6.9) | 75.3 (7) | 75.4 (7) | 75.5 (7) | 75.4 (7.1) | 75.2 (7.2) | 75.1 (7.3) | 74.9 (7.3) | 74.8 (7.3) | 74.8 (7.3) | 74.7 (7.3) | 74.6 (7.4) |
| Female sex, % | 57.7 | 57.9 | 58.3 | 58.6 | 58.7 | 58.7 | 58.6 | 58.4 | 58.1 | 58.0 | 57.7 | 57.5 | 57.4 | 57.2 | 57.2 |
| Race, % | |||||||||||||||
| White | 85.5 | 86.1 | 85.8 | 85.3 | 84.9 | 84.6 | 84.1 | 83.1 | 83.0 | 83.1 | 83.2 | 83.3 | 82.9 | 82.6 | 82.1 |
| Black | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| Other | 6.7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8.2 |
| Dual eligible, % | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 11.9 |