Table 2. Number of deaths in the derivation cohort, likelihood ratios for predicting death and score by predictor.
| Predictor | Number of deaths*, (%)1 | Crude LHR | Adjusted LHR2 | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 99 (5.9) | |||
| Age groups (years)3 | ||||
| - <5 | 4 (10.0) | 1.96 | – | – |
| - 5–18 | 3 (1.1) | 0.98 | – | – |
| - >18–40 | 77 (5.9) | 1.00 | – | – |
| - 5–18 | 3 (1.1) | 0.99 | – | – |
| - >40 | 15 (19.5) | 3.94 | 2.22 | +1 |
| - 5–18 | 3 (1.1) | 0.88 | 0.93 | 0 |
| Relapse VL | ||||
| - Yes | 20 (12.8) | 2.38 | – | – |
| - No | 79 (5.2) | 0.87 | – | – |
| Duration of illness ≥2 months | ||||
| - Yes | 35 (6.6) | 1.20 | – | – |
| - No | 58 (5.1) | 0.91 | – | – |
| HIV serostatus | ||||
| - Positive | 51 (15.6) | 3.20 | 3.04 | +1 |
| - Negative | 39 (3.0) | 0.53 | 0.54 | _1 |
| Severe malnutrition | ||||
| - Yes | 46 (8.3) | 1.78 | – | – |
| - No | 30 (2.9) | 0.60 | – | – |
| Hemoglobin ≤6.5 g/dl | ||||
| - Yes | 47 (12.4) | 2.29 | 2.16 | +1 |
| - No | 50 (3.9) | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0 |
| Spleen size ≥11 cm | ||||
| - Yes | 20 (7.0) | 1.28 | – | – |
| - No | 74 (5.4) | 0.94 | – | – |
| Bleeding | ||||
| - Yes | 9 (15.8) | 3.13 | 3.11 | +1 |
| - No | 89 (5.5) | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0 |
| Jaundice | ||||
| - Yes | 11 (25) | 5.58 | 3.21 | +1 |
| - No | 78 (5.2) | 0.89 | 0.93 | 0 |
| Weakness (severe/collapse) | ||||
| - Yes | 38 (12.7) | 2.33 | 1.64 | 0 |
| - No | 61 (4.4) | 0.74 | 0.84 | 0 |
| Edema | ||||
| - Yes | 22 (16.7) | 3.35 | 2.36 | +1 |
| - No | 56 (4.5) | 0.78 | 0.84 | 0 |
| Ascites | ||||
| - Yes | 10 (47.6) | 15.23 | 5.84 | +2 |
| - No | 67 (4.9) | 0.87 | 0.92 | 0 |
| Tuberculosis | ||||
| - Yes | 23 (19.2) | 3.83 | 1.71 | +1 |
| - No | 76 (4.9) | 0.82 | 0.92 | 0 |
| VL treatment regimen4 | ||||
| - AmBisome based initial regimen | 76 (12.2) | 2.21 | – | – |
| - SSG based initial regimen | 23 (2.2) | 0.36 | – | – |
VL–Visceral leishmaniasis; LHR–Likelihood ratio; SSG–Sodium stibogluconate
* Data are missing when the total number of deaths for a predictor are less than 99.
1 All percentages (%) are row percentages.
2 Adjusted for all variables with an adjusted LHR ≥1.5 or ≤0.67 (age >40 years, HIV serostatus, hemoglobin ≤6.5 g/dl, bleeding, jaundice, edema, ascites and tuberculosis).
3 The reference age-group is 5–18 years; it is compared to age-groups, <5, 18–40 and >40 years.
4 The first VL treatment regimen.