Table 1.

Summary measures for natural history events occurring within a man’s lifetime, up to age 85 years, projected by the three models. Ratios are for black men relative to all races and are calculated using 4 significant digits for all measures.

Measure	FHCRC			MISCAN			UMICH
	Black men	All races	Ratio	Black men	All races	Ratio	Black men	All races	Ratio
Risk of onset, %	43	28	1.56	30	24	1.28	37	29	1.29
Risk of clinical diagnosis, %	15	9	1.70	13	10	1.33	18	13	1.44
Risk of metastatic clinical diagnosis, %	4	2	2.53	4	2	1.84	4	2	2.26
Risk of clinical diagnosis given onset, %	35	32	1.09	45	43	1.04	49	44	1.12
Risk of metastatic clinical diagnosis given onset, %	9	6	1.63	13	9	1.44	12	7	1.75
Mean age at onset, y	57	59	0.97	64	67	0.96	65	66	0.99
Mean age at clinical diagnosis, y	71	72	0.99	70	72	0.98	75	76	0.98
Mean age at metastatic clinical diagnosis, y	70	72	0.98	71	73	0.98	74	74	0.99
Mean time from onset to clinical diagnosis, y	18	18	1.02	10	10	0.98	17	18	0.92
Mean time from onset to metastatic clinical diagnosis, y	16	15	1.03	12	13	0.94	16	21	0.79
Risk of PSA or clinical diagnosis*, %	16	10	1.65	20	16	1.23	20	14	1.45
Risk of PSA or clinical diagnosis given onset*, %	38	36	1.06	66	68	0.97	53	47	1.12
Mean age at PSA or clinical diagnosis*, y	70	71	0.99	69	71	0.98	73	74	0.98
Mean time from PSA to clinical diagnosis*, y	7	7	1.03	8	9	0.95	7	7	0.96

^*These measures are in the presence of modeled PSA screening patterns in 1987–2000 and are included for reference.