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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Sep 1.
Published in final edited form as: Healthc (Amst). 2016 Dec 5;5(3):105–111. doi: 10.1016/j.hjdsi.2016.11.001

Table 4.

Cumulative incidence of HCV outcomes and costs in 2015–2050 under various coverage scenarios, altering the maximum number of individuals treated annually in 2015 and beyond.

Maximum
individuals
treated
annually
in 2015
and
beyond
Coverage
Scenario
Cumulative results in Pennsylvania
Medicaid
Cumulative results incurred to Medicare

Incidence 2015–2050 Cost ($million) Incidence 2015–2050 Cost ($million)

DC HCC LT LRD Chronic
disease
2015–2050*
Treatment
2015–2025**
DC HCC LT LRD Chronic
disease
2015–2050*
Treatment
2015–2025**
2,200 Panel
A.
F3–F4 744 659 140 1,3 82 396 660 873 750 108 1,6 31 184 696
F2–F4
(base
case)
957 784 163 1,600 386 838 1,020 855 125 1,839 219 611
F0–F4 1,424 1,050 212 2,061 399 1,004 1,409 1,117 159 2,443 296 425

4,300 Panel
B.
F3–F4 614 585 125 1,257 369 702 782 688 98 1,470 163 704
F2–F4
(base
case)
696 636 136 1,351 331 955 830 714 104 1,482 173 619
F0–F4 896 742 155 1,531 269 1,489 972 818 119 1,795 207 503

6,400 Panel
C.
F3–F4 572 563 121 1,214 361 712 782 682 97 1,487 161 699
F2–F4
(base
case)
623 587 129 1,259 311 975 784 687 98 1,487 164 616
F0–F4 742 660 141 1,381 229 1,592 859 741 108 1,603 181 486

8,500 Panel
D.
F3–F4 576 560 120 1,214 361 712 774 677 97 1,415 162 699
F2–F4
(base
case)
595 575 124 1,240 305 985 782 675 99 1,456 162 610
F0–F4 672 621 132 1,310 208 1,642 816 704 102 1,519 170 475

Unlimited Panel
E.
F3–F4 584 567 121 1,224 362 712 781 677 97 1,398 162 698
F2–F4
(base
case)
575 559 121 1,214 300 996 771 673 97 1,403 161 604
F0–F4 574 556 122 1,210 180 1,718 775 673 96 1,465 160 447
*

Chronic disease cost is the cost incurred by chronic stages of hepatitis C virus and the cost of managing associated liver complications.

**

Cost of HCV treatment with new antiviral therapies.

Abbreviations: F0 = Metavir stage for no liver fibrosis; F1 = Metavir stage for portal fibrosis without septa; F2 = Metavir stage for portal fibrosis with few septa; F3 = Metavir stage for numerous septa without cirrhosis; F4 = Metavir stage for cirrhosis; DC = decompensated cirrhosis; HCC = hepatocellular carcinoma; LT = liver transplant; LRD = liver-related death.