Table 4.
Cumulative incidence of HCV outcomes and costs in 2015–2050 under various coverage scenarios, altering the maximum number of individuals treated annually in 2015 and beyond.
| Maximum individuals treated annually in 2015 and beyond |
Coverage Scenario |
Cumulative results in Pennsylvania Medicaid |
Cumulative results incurred to Medicare | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence 2015–2050 | Cost ($million) | Incidence 2015–2050 | Cost ($million) | ||||||||||
| DC | HCC | LT | LRD | Chronic disease 2015–2050* |
Treatment 2015–2025** |
DC | HCC | LT | LRD | Chronic disease 2015–2050* |
Treatment 2015–2025** |
||
| 2,200 |
Panel A. |
||||||||||||
| F3–F4 | 744 | 659 | 140 | 1,3 82 | 396 | 660 | 873 | 750 | 108 | 1,6 31 | 184 | 696 | |
|
F2–F4 (base case) |
957 | 784 | 163 | 1,600 | 386 | 838 | 1,020 | 855 | 125 | 1,839 | 219 | 611 | |
| F0–F4 | 1,424 | 1,050 | 212 | 2,061 | 399 | 1,004 | 1,409 | 1,117 | 159 | 2,443 | 296 | 425 | |
| 4,300 |
Panel B. |
||||||||||||
| F3–F4 | 614 | 585 | 125 | 1,257 | 369 | 702 | 782 | 688 | 98 | 1,470 | 163 | 704 | |
|
F2–F4 (base case) |
696 | 636 | 136 | 1,351 | 331 | 955 | 830 | 714 | 104 | 1,482 | 173 | 619 | |
| F0–F4 | 896 | 742 | 155 | 1,531 | 269 | 1,489 | 972 | 818 | 119 | 1,795 | 207 | 503 | |
| 6,400 |
Panel C. |
||||||||||||
| F3–F4 | 572 | 563 | 121 | 1,214 | 361 | 712 | 782 | 682 | 97 | 1,487 | 161 | 699 | |
|
F2–F4 (base case) |
623 | 587 | 129 | 1,259 | 311 | 975 | 784 | 687 | 98 | 1,487 | 164 | 616 | |
| F0–F4 | 742 | 660 | 141 | 1,381 | 229 | 1,592 | 859 | 741 | 108 | 1,603 | 181 | 486 | |
| 8,500 |
Panel D. |
||||||||||||
| F3–F4 | 576 | 560 | 120 | 1,214 | 361 | 712 | 774 | 677 | 97 | 1,415 | 162 | 699 | |
|
F2–F4 (base case) |
595 | 575 | 124 | 1,240 | 305 | 985 | 782 | 675 | 99 | 1,456 | 162 | 610 | |
| F0–F4 | 672 | 621 | 132 | 1,310 | 208 | 1,642 | 816 | 704 | 102 | 1,519 | 170 | 475 | |
| Unlimited |
Panel E. |
||||||||||||
| F3–F4 | 584 | 567 | 121 | 1,224 | 362 | 712 | 781 | 677 | 97 | 1,398 | 162 | 698 | |
|
F2–F4 (base case) |
575 | 559 | 121 | 1,214 | 300 | 996 | 771 | 673 | 97 | 1,403 | 161 | 604 | |
| F0–F4 | 574 | 556 | 122 | 1,210 | 180 | 1,718 | 775 | 673 | 96 | 1,465 | 160 | 447 | |
*
Chronic disease cost is the cost incurred by chronic stages of hepatitis C virus and the cost of managing associated liver complications.
**
Cost of HCV treatment with new antiviral therapies.
Abbreviations: F0 = Metavir stage for no liver fibrosis; F1 = Metavir stage for portal fibrosis without septa; F2 = Metavir stage for portal fibrosis with few septa; F3 = Metavir stage for numerous septa without cirrhosis; F4 = Metavir stage for cirrhosis; DC = decompensated cirrhosis; HCC = hepatocellular carcinoma; LT = liver transplant; LRD = liver-related death.