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. 2017 May 18;12(6):947–954. doi: 10.2215/CJN.11631116

Figure 2.

Figure 2.

Markov model health-state probabilities at three points in time over a 5-year horizon for all age and life expectancy groups: the probabilities of functional arteriovenous fistula (AVF) and functional arteriovenous graft (AVG) peaked at 8 and 3 months, respectively. Subsequently, probability of functional arteriovenous access decreased, whereas probability of central venous catheter (CVC) use or death increased. Health-state probabilities for functional arteriovenous access, CVC use, and death at three time points ([1] time at which there is the highest probability of functional AVG [3 months], [2] time at which there is the highest probability of functional AVF [8 months], and [3] the last month of the simulation) are depicted for (A) AVF and (B) AVG Markov models. Health-state probabilities for the (C) CVC Markov model show the probability of death or CVC use at the same three time points. The proportions shown are for the highest (75th percentile) quartile of the 65- to 69-year-old age group.