Table 4.
Hazard Ratios (95% CI)a for the Association of PA with Risk of Incident ASCVD Over 21 Years Follow-Up Stratified by Vitamin D Status: The ARIC Study From ARIC Visit 2 (1990–1992) through December 2013
| AHA Categories | No. of Events/Total No. | IR | Model 1b | Model 2c | Model 3d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitamin D deficient (<20 ng/mL)e (n = 3140) | |||||
| Poor (reference) | 287/1440 | 10.5 | Reference (1) | Reference (1) | Reference (1) |
| Intermediate | 143/840 | 8.9 | 0.84 (0.69, 1.03) | 0.84 (0.68, 1.03) | 0.84 (0.69, 1.03) |
| Recommended | 135/860 | 8.4 | 0.86 (0.70, 1.06) | 0.91 (0.74, 1.12) | 0.92 (0.74, 1.13) |
| Vitamin D intermediate (20 to <30 ng/mL)b (n = 4664) | |||||
| Poor (reference) | 301/1519 | 10.5 | 0.84 (0.71, 1.00) | 0.90 (0.76, 1.07) | 0.91 (0.77, 1.08) |
| Intermediate | 226/1226 | 9.4 | 0.90 (0.75, 1.08) | 0.96 (0.80, 1.16) | 0.98 (0.81, 1.18) |
| Recommended | 306/1919 | 8.2 | 0.72 (0.61, 0.86) | 0.77 (0.65, 0.92) | 0.78 (0.65, 0.93) |
| Vitamin D optimal (≥30 ng/mL)b (n = 2538) | |||||
| Poor (reference) | 137/617 | 11.9 | 0.95 (0.77, 1.18) | 1.05 (0.85, 1.30) | 1.07 (0.86, 1.33) |
| Intermediate | 86/605 | 7.2 | 0.64 (0.50, 0.83) | 0.74 (0.57, 0.95) | 0.75 (0.58, 0.97) |
| Recommended | 179/1316 | 6.8 | 0.62 (0.51, 0.76) | 0.75 (0.61, 0.92) | 0.76 (0.62, 0.93) |
P interaction = 0.04 for PA and 25(OH)D categories on incident ASCVD risk using Model 1 covariates. Data in bold type are statistically significant.
Abbreviation: IR, crude incidence per 1000 person-years.
From Cox hazard models.
Model 1: age, sex, race/center, education, smoking status, and alcohol intake
Model 2: Model 1 plus additional potential mediating variables (of the association between PA or vitamin D and ASCVD risk): SBP, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, total and HDL cholesterol levels, use of lipid-lowering medications, and eGFR.
Model 3: Model 2 plus BMI.
To convert 25(OH)D levels to nmol/L from ng/mL, multiply by 2.496.