Table 2.

Estimations of candidate models. AIC: Akaike’s information criterion; ARIMA: autoregressive integrated moving average.

Model	Parameter	Estimation	Std. Error	AIC
ARIMA(1,0,0)	AR(1)	0.8137	0.1275	−135.97
ARIMA(2,0,0)	AR(1)	0.8545	0.1400	−139.65
	AR(2)	−0.7525	0.2251
ARIMA(2,0,1)	AR(1)	0.2187	0.1394	−149.24
	AR(2)	−0.6506	0.2890
	MA(1)	0.9349	0.0821
ARIMA(3,0,1)	AR(1)	0.2469	0.1611	−147.36
	AR(2)	−0.6541	0.2946
	AR(3)	0.1253	0.3684
	MA(1)	0.9204	0.0896