Table 3. Tissue Lesion Contributions to Prediction of Knee OA, Defined as KL≥2 and Joint Space Narrowing, by Model A plus WOMAC Pain, Cox Proportional Hazards Models using the Likelihood Ratio (LR) Test and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (SBC) (n = 841 persons, 1 knee/person).
| KL≥2 and joint space narrowing (outcome) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lesion status | Number (%) with outcome 36/841 (4.3%) | Adjusted HR (95% CI) | LR test (p-value) | SBC for base model1 + lesion |
| Any cartilage damage (TF or PF) | 31/634 (4.9) | 1.65 (0.63, 4.30) | 1.15 (0.28) | 482.26 |
| Cartilage damage, both TF and PF | 19/262 (7.3) | 2.41 (1.23, 4.74) | 6.44 (0.01) | 480.97 |
| Any BML (TF or PF) | 25/508 (4.9) | 1.22 (0.59, 2.52) | 0.29 (0.59) | 487.12 |
| BML, both TF and PF | 15/145 (10.3) | 3.28 (1.68, 6.42) | 10.82 (0.001) | 476.60 |
| Meniscal tear | 19/177 (10.7) | 4.94 (2.50, 9.78) | 19.96 (<0.0001) | 467.45 |
| Meniscal extrusion | 10/115 (8.7) | 2.45 (1.14, 5.26) | 4.62 (0.03) | 482.79 |
| Sum of lesion types2 (adjusted HR/additional lesion type) | — | 1.77 (1.27, 2.48) | 11.60 (0.0007) | 475.81 |
| Number of subregions with cartilage damage (including TF and PF)2 (adjusted HR/additional subregion) | — | 1.57 (1.33, 1.87) | 22.81 (<0.0001) | 464.60 |
| Maximum cartilage damage severity (among all TF and PF subregions)2 (adjusted HR/additional grade) | — | 1.53 (0.95, 2.46) | 3.43 (0.06) | 483.98 |
| Maximum cartilage damage severity (full thickness score, among all TF and PFsubregions)2 (adjusted HR/additional grade) | — | 1.32 (0.95, 1.84) | 2.61 (0.11) | 484.80 |
| Number of subregions with BML(including TF and PF)2 (adjusted HR/additional subregion) | — | 1.47 (1.17, 1.85) | 9.81 (0.002) | 477.60 |
| Maximum BML severity (among all TFand PF subregions)2 (adjusted HR/additional grade) | — | 1.28 (0.84, 1.94) | 1.27 (0.26) | 486.14 |
| Number of subregions with cartilage damage, number of subregions with BML, meniscal tear (concurrently included in model) | — | — | 36.47 (<0.0001) | 458.11 |
1
Base model included age, gender, overweight, obesity, hand OA, knee injury, knee surgery, LIFT, SQUAT, and WOMAC Pain (SBC for base model=483.83)
2
continuous
Each row represents a separate model showing the impact (LR test) on the adjusted HR for incident OA (KL≥2 and joint space narrowing) of adding the specific lesion(s) to the base model with age, gender, overweight, obesity, hand OA, knee injury, knee surgery, LIFT, SQUAT, and WOMAC Pain. Column 2 represents % of knees with the outcome among all knees with the specific (row) lesion. Obesity, hand OA, SQUAT, and WOMAC Pain were associated with the outcome in all or nearly all Model A+WOMAC Pain+lesion models. (HR=hazard ratio, CI=confidence interval; TF=tibiofemoral; PF=patellofemoral)