Table 2. Estimated impact of assessed uncertainty dimensions on 2030 GHG emissions.
| Global* | AFR | CPA | EEU | FSU | LAM | MEA | NAM | PAO | PAS | SAS | WEU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean emission estimate (GtCO2e yr−1) in 2030 | |||||||||||
| 53.5 | 3.4 | 14.4 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 3.8 |
| Median emission estimate (GtCO2e yr−1) in 2030 | |||||||||||
| 52.3 | 3.4 | 13.3 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.8 |
| Overall emission estimate incl. uncertainty† | |||||||||||
| 47.1–62.9 | 2.8–4.2 | 11.0–20.5 | 0.9–1.0 | 3.3–4.5 | 4.7–5.7 | 3.6–4.7 | 5.9–6.2 | 1.9–1.9 | 3.9–4.5 | 5.1–6.9 | 3.8–3.8 |
| Uncertainty due to socioeconomic baseline variation† | |||||||||||
| 7.1–11.3 | 0.1–0.4 | 3.4–7.2 | 0–0 | 0.4–1.2 | 0.1–0.7 | 0.6–0.7 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0.1–0.2 | 1.7–1.8 | 0–0 |
| Uncertainty due to historical emission variation† | |||||||||||
| 0.1–1.2 | 0.1–0.3 | 0–1.3 | 0–0 | 0–0.6 | 0.1–0.5 | 0–0.2 | 0.1–0.2 | 0–0.1 | 0–0.1 | 0–0.1 | 0–0 |
| Uncertainty due to conditionality of NDCs† | |||||||||||
| 1.0–2.7 | 0.4–0.8 | 0–0.4 | 0–0 | 0–0.1 | 0–0.8 | 0.2–0.5 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0.4–0.5 | 0–0.1 | 0–0 |
| Uncertainty due to range specifications of NDCs† | |||||||||||
| 0.3–3.1 | 0.1–0.4 | 0–2.4 | 0–0 | 0–0.2 | 0–0.1 | 0–0 | 0.1–0.1 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 |
| Uncertainty due to alternative energy accounting methods† | |||||||||||
| 0–4.5 | 0–0 | 0–4.5 | 0–0 | 0–0.1 | 0–0.1 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0.1 | 0–0 |
| Uncertainty due to attribution of non-commercial biomass† | |||||||||||
| 0–1.7 | 0–0 | 0–1.8 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 | 0–0 |
GHG, greenhouse gas; NDC, nationally determined contribution.
Supplementary Table 1 provides values aggregated with values from ref. 9.
*Regions are defined in Supplementary Table 2 and illustrated in Fig. 3.
†Uncertainty ranges are minimum–maximum ranges (Methods) in GtCO2e yr–1 (aggregated with GWP-100 values from ref. 10).