Table 1.

Model Variables

Variable	Value	Range	Data Source
Age at onset of ADT, y	70	60–80	33

Progression of prostate cancer (per year), %	14	11–17^*	33
Localized disease to rising PSA

Rising PSA to noncastrate metastasis	18	14–22^*	40

Noncastrate metastasis to castrate metastasis	36	24–52	41

Castrate metastasis to prostate cancer death	50	43–58	41

Mean BMD before ADT, g/cm²	0.7540	0.5915–0.8069	35
Rate of BMD loss (per year), g/cm²

No ADT	0.0035	0.0026–0.0044	42

During ADT	0.0188	0.0141–0.0235	43
Incidence of hip fractures per patient-year in patients with mean BMD, by age, %			44

60–64 y	0.055	0.028–0.083	–

65–69 y	0.094	0.047–0.141	–

70–74 y	0.195	0.098–0.293	–

75–79 y	0.402	0.201–0.603	–

80–84 y	0.922	0.461–1.383	–

85–100 y	2.357	1.179–3.536	–
Relative risk for hip fractures per Z score, by age			39

60–64 y	3.07	2.42–3.89^*	–

65–69 y	2.89	2.39–3.50^*	–

70–74 y	2.78	2.39–3.23^*	–

75–79 y	2.58	2.30–2.90^*	–

80–84 y	2.28	2.09–2.50^*	–

85–100 y	1.93	1.76–2.10^*	–
Relative risk for hip fractures due to a previous fracture, by age			45

60–64 y	3.16	1.88–5.32^*	–

65–69 y	2.28	1.52–3.41^*	–

70–74 y	1.90	1.37–2.65^*	–

75–79 y	1.64	1.24–2.17^*	–

80–84 y	1.41	1.12–1.78^*	–

85–100 y	1.32	1.04–1.68^*	–

Bone loss prevented by alendronate, %	100	50–100	Assumed

Adherence rate to alendronate therapy, %	100	50–100	46

Incidence of upper gastrointestinal side effects of alendronate, %	0.8	0–2	47

Background mortality per year, %†	2.72	2.04–3.40	48

Relative risk for death within the first year after a hip fracture	1.375	1–2	49, 50

Health state utility of prostate cancer
Localized disease	0.840	0.630–1.000	51

Rising PSA	0.800	0.600–1.000	Assumed

Noncastrate metastasis	0.440	0.330–0.550	51

Castrate metastasis	0.130	0.098–0.163	51

Utility multiplier
Hip fracture
First year	0.792	0.594–0.990	52–54

Subsequent years	0.813	0.610–1.000	52–54

Upper gastrointestinal side effects of alendronate	0.980	0.735–1.000	55
Cost, $

BMD test	131	98–164	56

Alendronate (per year)	600	300–900	57

Hip fracture, first year	33 200	24 900–41 500	52, 54, 58

Hip fracture, subsequent years (per year)	8100	6450–10 750	52, 54, 58

Upper gastrointestinal side effects of alendronate	3000	2250–3750	56, 57

Discount rate, %	3	0–6	32

ADT = androgen deprivation therapy; BMD = bone mineral density; PSA = prostate-specific antigen.

95% CI.

^†

Variable was age-specific. Values shown are for persons aged 70 years.