Table 2.

Slope values from a minimum Bayesian additive regression model for RVF occurrence records from 2004 to 2016 independent of spatial, seasonal and climatic oscillation effects estimated using INLA. Percentage land-use classes are aggregated from 16 MODIS [38] habitat classes (see Material and methods). Mean and s.d. represent the mean and standard deviation of the slope values; 0.025, 0.5, 0.975 represent quantiles of the distribution (see electronic supplementary material, figure S1 for slope distributions). Italics denotes variable had a slope mean value that was significantly greater than zero.

variable	mean	s.d.	0.025	0.5	0.975
intercept	−0.0865	11.182	−22.0406	−0.0868	21.8493
ann. precipitation	0.1571	0.09	−0.0202	0.1573	0.3334
ann. precipitation2	−0.0206	0.0089	−0.0381	−0.0206	−0.0031
ann. mean temp.	0.0021	0.0045	−0.0067	0.0021	0.011
ann. mean temp.2	0	0	0	0	0
no. of observed floods	0.0059	0.0093	−0.0126	0.0059	0.0243
sheep density	0.0146	0.0206	−0.0258	0.0146	0.0548
cattle density	−0.0033	0.0125	−0.0283	−0.0031	0.0209
prop. of cultivated land	−0.439	0.2335	−0.8975	−0.439	0.019
prop. of cultivated land2	1.6028	0.6198	0.3854	1.6029	2.8183
presence of irrigation	0.0473	0.0076	0.0328	0.0472	0.0627
human popn density	0.0169	0.0079	0.0015	0.0169	0.0326
% forest	0.0059	11.1761	−21.9365	0.0056	21.93
% shrubland	−0.0465	11.176	−21.9888	−0.0469	21.8774
% savannah	0.0199	11.176	−21.9223	0.0196	21.9438
% grassland	0.0576	11.176	−21.8846	0.0573	21.9815
% wetland	−0.1453	11.1769	−22.0894	−0.1456	21.7804
% anthro.	0.0654	11.176	−21.8768	0.0651	21.9893
% bare	−0.0467	11.176	−21.989	−0.047	21.8773
no. of animals at risk	−0.0197	0.0148	−0.0531	−0.0176	0.0056