Table 1.

Theories relating marriage to wages

	(1)	(2)	(3)
	Causal marriage premium: Anticipation	Reverse causality: Wages affect marriage	Spurious association: Transition to adulthood
Theory	Men’s work behavior changes due to marriage, including in anticipation of taking on the husband role.	Men delay marriage until financial goals are achieved.	During the transition to adulthood, men mature rapidly, often marry, and experience wage increases.
Relevant literature	Cheng (2016), Waite and Gallagher (2000)	Edin and Kefalas (2005), Oppenheimer (2003), Oppenheimer, Kalmijn and Lim (1997), Smock, Manning and Porter (2005), Sweeney (2002), Xie et al. (2003)	Hogan and Astone (1986), Rindfuss (1991), Shanahan (2000)
Empirical predictions
Marriage exit	Wages decline after divorce.	Wages decline before divorce.	Wages flat through divorce.
Heterogeneity by timing	Wages increase prior to marriage regardless of marriage timing.	Wages increase prior to marriage regardless of marriage timing.	Wages increase more among those who marry young.
Shotgun marriage	Smaller premarital wage increases for shotgun marriages than others.	Smaller premarital wage increases for shotgun marriages than others.	Similar premarital wage increases, regardless of shotgun marriage status.