Table 4.
Adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for death from colorectal cancer in men and women in the derivation cohort for the main model
| Predictor variables | Adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Women | Men | |
| Townsend score* | 1.07 (1.02 to 1.12) | 1.05 (1.00 to 1.10) |
| Smoking status: | ||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Former smoker | 0.93 (0.86 to 1.00) | 0.99 (0.93 to 1.05) |
| Light smoker | 1.19 (1.03 to 1.39) | 1.33 (1.21 to 1.45) |
| Moderate smoker | 1.16 (0.97 to 1.39) | 1.13 (0.97 to 1.32) |
| Heavy smoker | 1.54 (1.28 to 1.87) | 1.48 (1.26 to 1.73) |
| Cancer stage at diagnosis†: | ||
| 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 2 | 2.79 (2.13 to 3.65) | 2.11 (1.66 to 2.67) |
| 3 | 10.33 (7.75 to 13.77) | 7.48 (6.07 to 9.21) |
| 4 | 35.63 (26.52 to 47.85) | 30.98 (24.87 to 38.59) |
| Cancer grade at diagnosis: | ||
| 1, well differentiated | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 2, moderately differentiated | 1.12 (0.94 to 1.33) | 1.11 (0.98 to 1.26) |
| 3, poorly differentiated | 1.59 (1.33 to 1.90) | 1.93 (1.68 to 2.20) |
| 4, undifferentiated | 1.65 (0.90 to 3.02) | 2.50 (1.26 to 4.95) |
| Medical history‡: | ||
| Family history of bowel cancer | 0.58 (0.46 to 0.74) | 0.81 (0.67 to 0.98) |
| Raised platelet count | 1.25 (1.15 to 1.37) | 1.28 (1.18 to 1.39) |
| Abnormal liver function test result | 1.35 (1.19 to 1.53) | 1.72 (1.56 to 1.89) |
| Statin use at diagnosis | 0.72 (0.66 to 0.78) | 0.67 (0.62 to 0.72) |
| Aspirin use at diagnosis | 0.86 (0.77 to 0.96) | 0.77 (0.72 to 0.82) |
| CVD | 1.28 (1.16 to 1.41) | 1.30 (1.21 to 1.41) |
| Type 1 diabetes | 0.71 (0.35 to 1.44) | 1.32 (0.68 to 2.54) |
| Type 2 diabetes | 1.12 (1.02 to 1.23) | 1.14 (1.05 to 1.24) |
| Cancer treatments‡: | ||
| Surgery | 0.47 (0.44 to 0.51) | 0.54 (0.50 to 0.59) |
| Chemotherapy (stage 1) | 3.21 (1.95 to 5.31) | 2.48 (1.64 to 3.74) |
| Chemotherapy (stage 2) | 1.70 (1.39 to 2.07) | 1.60 (1.35 to 1.90) |
| Chemotherapy (stage 3) | 0.74 (0.66 to 0.84) | 0.77 (0.70 to 0.85) |
| Chemotherapy (stage 4) | 0.56 (0.49 to 0.63) | 0.52 (0.48 to 0.57) |
CVD=cardiovascular disease.
*Scores range between −7 (most affluent) and 11 (most deprived). Adjusted hazard ratio is per 5 unit increase.
†In people without chemotherapy at the mean age.
‡Adjusted hazard ratio compared with patients without this characteristic. The model for women includes terms for age (two fractional polynomial terms, age3 and age3ln(age)) and body mass index (two fractional polynomial terms, bmi−2 and ln(bmi)). The model for men includes terms for age (two fractional polynomial terms, age3 and age3ln(age)) and body mass index (two fractional polynomial terms, bmi0.5 and bmi). In men and women there were interactions between age and cancer stage and between chemotherapy and cancer stage, and in women there was an interaction between age and aspirin use.