Table 5.
Adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for deaths from other causes in men and women in the derivation cohort for the main model. See footnotes for fractional polynomial terms
| Predictor variables | Adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Women | Men | |
| Townsend score* | 1.14 (1.08 to 1.19) | 1.16 (1.11 to 1.20) |
| Smoking status: | ||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Former smoker | 0.99 (0.92 to 1.06) | 1.02 (0.97 to 1.08) |
| Light smoker | 1.57 (1.39 to 1.77) | 1.35 (1.23 to 1.49) |
| Moderate smoker | 1.52 (1.31 to 1.76) | 1.73 (1.46 to 2.05) |
| Heavy smoker | 1.52 (1.18 to 1.97) | 1.63 (1.38 to 1.93) |
| Cancer stage at diagnosis†: | ||
| 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 2 | 1.24 (1.06 to 1.46) | 1.21 (1.08 to 1.37) |
| 3 | 2.14 (1.78 to 2.57) | 2.08 (1.82 to 2.39) |
| 4 | 8.53 (7.11 to 10.24) | 6.76 (5.72 to 7.98) |
| Cancer grade at diagnosis: | ||
| 1, well differentiated | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 2, moderately differentiated | 0.96 (0.84 to 1.10) | 1.03 (0.93 to 1.15) |
| 3, poorly differentiated | 1.27 (1.07 to 1.51) | 1.23 (1.08 to 1.39) |
| 4, undifferentiated | 0.84 (0.39 to 1.81) | 2.07 (0.89 to 4.83) |
| Medical history‡: | ||
| Family history of bowel cancer | 0.66 (0.54 to 0.80) | 0.84 (0.69 to 1.03) |
| Raised platelet count | 1.04 (0.95 to 1.13) | 1.15 (1.05 to 1.27) |
| Abnormally raised liver function test result | 1.36 (1.16 to 1.59) | 1.37 (1.22 to 1.54) |
| Statins use at diagnosis | 0.84 (0.78 to 0.91) | 0.82 (0.78 to 0.87) |
| Aspirin use at diagnosis | 0.90 (0.81 to 1.00) | 0.82 (0.78 to 0.88) |
| CVD (stage 1) | 1.39 (1.07 to 1.80) | 1.67 (1.42 to 1.96) |
| CVD (stage 2) | 1.01 (0.74 to 1.38) | 0.86 (0.70 to 1.04) |
| CVD (stage 3) | 1.05 (0.76 to 1.44) | 0.77 (0.64 to 0.94) |
| CVD (stage 4) | 0.82 (0.59 to 1.14) | 0.74 (0.60 to 0.90) |
| Type 1 diabetes | 1.60 (0.92 to 2.79) | 1.65 (0.90 to 3.03) |
| Type 2 diabetes | 1.23 (1.12 to 1.34) | 1.24 (1.16 to 1.33) |
| Renal disease | 1.65 (1.39 to 1.96) | 1.55 (1.29 to 1.86) |
| COPD (stage 1) | 2.11 (1.54 to 2.89) | 1.63 (1.33 to 2.00) |
| COPD (stage 2) | 0.71 (0.46 to 1.11) | 1.10 (0.86 to 1.41) |
| COPD (stage 3) | 0.84 (0.57 to 1.23) | 0.98 (0.77 to 1.24) |
| COPD (stage 4) | 0.54 (0.36 to 0.80) | 0.75 (0.56 to 0.99) |
| Cancer treatments‡: | ||
| Surgery | 0.63 (0.58 to 0.69) | 0.62 (0.58 to 0.67) |
| Chemotherapy (stage 1) | 1.42 (0.96 to 2.11) | 0.93 (0.69 to 1.27) |
| Chemotherapy (stage 2) | 0.94 (0.78 to 1.12) | 0.96 (0.85 to 1.10) |
| Chemotherapy (stage 3) | 0.69 (0.60 to 0.79) | 0.69 (0.62 to 0.76) |
| Chemotherapy (stage4) | 0.51 (0.44 to 0.60) | 0.53 (0.45 to 0.61) |
CVD=cardiovascular disease; COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
*Scores range between −7 (most affluent) and 11 (most deprived). Adjusted hazard ratio is per 5 unit increase.
†In people without chemotherapy and without CVD and without COPD at the mean age.
‡Adjusted hazard ratio compared with patients without this characteristic. Model for women includes terms for age (two fractional polynomial terms, age2 and age2ln(age)) and body mass index (two fractional polynomial terms, bmi−2 and bmi−2ln(bmi)). The model for men includes terms for age (two fractional polynomial terms, age and ageln(age)) and body mass index (two fractional polynomial terms, bmi−2 and bmi−2ln(bmi)). In men and women there were interactions between age and cancer stage, chemotherapy and cancer stage, CVD and cancer stage, and COPD and cancer stage. In women there was an interaction between age and aspirin use.