Table 1. Diffusion-based predictions for spatial spread.

Unstable point	Speed (m/gen)	Width (m)	Minimum Release Area (km2)
p̂ = 0.2	30	400	0.13
p̂ = 0.35	15	400	0.25-0.38a (0.5)

These predictions assume σ ≈ 100 m, p₀ = 0.8, and 0.2 ≤ p̂ ≤ 0.35. They are based on Eq. 5, Eq. 6 and Fig. 3 of Barton and Turelli (2011).

^aThe smaller prediction (0.25) is derived with Schraiber et al. (2012) CI dynamics (3) assuming that wMel reduces only the fecundity of Ae. aegypti (i.e., s_r = s_f in 3b), the larger result (0.38) assumes that wMel reduces only viability. The cubic model produces the still larger value (0.5).