Table 3.
Predicted Probabilities of N2/N3 Disease and Estimated Posterior Probabilities of N2/N3 Disease following a Negative EBUS-TBNA in the Model Development Cohort
| CT PET N stage | Histology | Location | Predicted prN2/3 | Probability of N2/3 Post Negative EBUS* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N0 | Adeno | Central | 0.049–0.152 | 0.006–0.019 |
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N0 | Adeno | Outer two-thirds | 0.028–0.090 | 0.003–0.011 |
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N0 | Squamous | Central | 0.022–0.073 | 0.002–0.009 |
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N0 | Squamous | Outer two-thirds | 0.012–0.042 | 0.001–0.005 |
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N1 | Adeno | Central one-third | 0.199–0.464 | 0.027–0.087 |
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N1 | Adeno | Outer two-thirds | 0.122–0.324 | 0.015–0.050 |
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N1 | Squamous | Central one-third | 0.099–0.275 | 0.012–0.040 |
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N1 | Squamous | Outer two-thirds | 0.057–0.174 | 0.007–0.023 |
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N2 or N3 | Adeno | Central one-third | 0.356–0.657 | 0.057–0.174 |
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N2 or N3 | Adeno | Outer two-thirds | 0.235–0.516 | 0.033–0.105 |
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N2 or N3 | Squamous | Central one-third | 0.195–0.457 | 0.026–0.085 |
| CT = N0 or N1, PET = N2 or N3 | Squamous | Outer two-thirds | 0.119–0.318 | 0.015–0.049 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N0 | Adeno | Central one-third | 0.120–0.320 | 0.015–0.049 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N0 | Adeno | Outer two-thirds | 0.070–0.207 | 0.008–0.028 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N0 | Squamous | Central one-third | 0.056–0.171 | 0.007–0.022 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N0 | Squamous | Outer two-thirds | 0.032–0.103 | 0.004–0.012 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N1 | Adeno | Central one-third | 0.113–0.305 | 0.014–0.046 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N1 | Adeno | Outer two-thirds | 0.066–0.196 | 0.008–0.026 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N1 | Squamous | Central one-third | 0.053–0.162 | 0.006–0.021 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N1 | Squamous | Outer two-thirds | 0.030–0.097 | 0.003–0.012 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N2 or N3 | Adeno | Central one-third | 0.687–0.884 | 0.195–0.456 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N2 or N3 | Adeno | Outer two-thirds | 0.550–0.809 | 0.118–0.318 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N2 or N3 | Squamous | Central one-third | 0.491–0.770 | 0.096–0.269 |
| CT = N2 or N3, PET = N2 or N3 | Squamous | Outer two-thirds | 0.349–0.650 | 0.056–0.170 |
Definition of abbreviations: CT = computed tomography; EBUS-TBNA = endobronchial ultrasound–guided transbronchial needle aspiration; PET = positron emission tomography; prN2/3 = probability of EBUS-TBNA demonstrating N2 or N3 disease.
Probability of N2/3 post negative EBUS: post-test probability of N2/3 disease following a negative EBUS-TBNA in a patient that had a pretest probability of disease equal to the prN2/3 shown in the column to the left. This is predicated on EBUS sensitivity and specificity being 89% and 100%, respectively, as per American College of Chest Physicians guidelines. Probability ranges are for patients from 40 to 80 years old. Younger patients have lower probabilities of N2/3 disease. For age-specific probabilities see Table E10.