Table 3.
Multivariable prediction models for renal flare and ESRD
| Model | ISN/RPS Class I–V (n=105) | ISN/RPS Class III/IV (±V)a (n=91) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | P Value | HR (95% CI) | P Value | |
| Renal flare (n=99) | ||||
| Nonwhite | 2.23 (1.23 to 4.04) | 0.01 | 2.08 (1.09 to 3.98) | 0.03 |
| % Fibrinoid necrosis (glomerular) | 1.04 (1.00 to 1.07) | 0.04 | 1.04 (1.00 to 1.08) | 0.04 |
| ESRD (n=105) | ||||
| Nonwhite | 7.16 (2.34 to 21.91) | 0.001 | 9.12 (2.85 to 29.22) | <0.001 |
| Age0, yr | 1.02 (0.99 to 1.06) | 0.18 | 1.02 (0.99 to 1.06) | 0.23 |
| eGFR0, mL/min per 1.73 m2 | 0.98 (0.97 to 1.00) | <0.05 | 0.99 (0.97 to 1.00) | 0.12 |
| % Fibrinoid necrosis (glomerular) | 1.08 (1.02 to 1.13) | 0.004 | 1.07 (1.02 to 1.13) | 0.01 |
| % Fibrous crescents | 1.09 (1.02 to 1.17) | 0.02 | 1.10 (1.02 to 1.19) | 0.01 |
| IF/TA≥25% | 3.89 (1.25 to 12.14) | 0.02 | 4.53 (1.40 to 14.73) | 0.01 |
ISN/RPS, International Society of Nephrology/Renal Pathology Society; HR, hazard ratio; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; Age0, age at time of biopsy; eGFR0, eGFR at the time of renal biopsy; IF/TA, interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy.
a
Patients with class III/IV (±V) lupus nephritis who received induction immunosuppressive treatment with cytotoxic drugs were analyzed separately from the complete cohort.