Table 4.
Multivariable prediction model for the course of eGFR during follow-upa
| Model | ISN/RPS Class I–V (n=105) | ISN/RPS Class III/IV (±V)b (n=91) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β (95% CI) | P Value | β (95% CI) | P Value | |
| Intercept | 116.5 (100.1 to 132.8) | <0.001 | 116.4 (98.9 to 133.9) | <0.001 |
| Time, yr | −0.7 (−1.5 to 0.0) | 0.06 | −0.6 (−1.4 to 0.2) | 0.13 |
| Baseline predictors | ||||
| Nonwhite | −11.4 (−21.9 to −0.8) | 0.04 | −13.5 (−25.2 to −1.7) | 0.03 |
| Age0, yr | −0.8 (−1.2 to −0.4) | <0.001 | −0.8 (−1.2 to −0.4) | <0.001 |
| Normal glomeruli/minimal leukocyte influx, % | 0.2 (0.1 to 0.4) | 0.01 | 0.2 (0.0 to 0.5) | 0.03 |
| Cellular/fibrocellular crescents, % | −0.4 (−0.6 to −0.2) | 0.001 | −0.4 (−0.6 to −0.1) | 0.003 |
| Fibrous crescents, % | −1.4 (−2.4 to −0.5) | 0.004 | −1.6 (−2.6 to −0.5) | 0.004 |
| IF/TA≥25% | −40.5 (−56.2 to −24.8) | <0.001 | −41.4 (−58.3 to −24.4) | <0.001 |
β indicates eGFR in ml/min per 1.73 m2. eGFR at time t is given by the following: eGFR(t) = intercept + βTime×t + Z, where Z is the value given by the baseline predictors of the patient: Z = βAge0 × Age0[y] + βNormal glomeruli/minimal leukocyte influx × Normal glomeruli/minimal leukocyte influx[%] + βcellular/fibrocellular crescents × cellular/fibrocellular crescents[%] + βfibrous crescents × fibrous crescents[%] + βnonwhite (if nonwhite) + βIF/TA≥25% (if IF/TA≥25%). ISN/RPS, International Society of Nephrology/Renal Pathology Society; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; Age0, age at time of biopsy; IF/TA, interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy.
Mixed-model analysis.
Patients with class III/IV (±V) lupus nephritis who received induction immunosuppression with cytotoxic drugs were analyzed separately from the complete cohort.