Table 2.

Prediction of risk of AD progression: model results (controlled for age, APOE in the longitudinal model and controlled for age, gender, years of education and APOE in the survival model)

				Cross-sectional prediction (Cox Model)			Longitudinal prediction (Joint Model)
Variable*	Participants	Observations	Events†	α	Z value	HR‡ or HR−1 (95% CI)	α	Z value	HR‡ or HR−1 (95% CI)
ADAS-Cog 13	384	1872	200	0.95	9.08	2.57 (2.10 – 3.16)	1.07	9.33	2.92 (2.33 – 3.66)
ADAS-Cog 11	384	1890	200	0.81	8.18	2.25 (1.85 – 2.74)	0.92	8.40	2.52 (2.03 – 3.12)
RAVLT.immediate	384	1883	200	−0.85	−8.26	2.34 (1.92–2.85)	−1.15	−8.32	3.16 (2.41 – 4.15)
FAQ	384	1895	200	0.59	8.06	1.80 (1.56 – 2.07)	0.67	7.38	1.95 (1.64 – 2.34)
MidTemp	362	1290	184	−0.64	−7.22	1.90 (1.59 – 2.26)	−0.68	−7.31	1.96 (1.65 – 2.37)
RAVLT.learning	384	1883	200	−0.37	−4.61	1.44 (1.23 – 1.68)	−1.24	−6.45	3.47 (2.38 – 5.06)
MMSE	384	1888	200	−0.57	−4.78	1.76 (1.40 – 2.23)	−0.58	−6.43	1.79 (1.50 – 2.13)
Hippocampus	362	1296	184	−0.60	−6.49	1.83 (1.52 – 2.20)	−0.60	−6.30	1.82 (1.51 – 2.19)
CDR-SB	384	1892	200	0.75	6.08	2.11 (1.66 – 2.69)	0.66	6.30	1.93 (1.57 – 2.37)
FDG-PET	220	905	100	−0.56	−4.65	1.76 (1.38 – 2.22)	−0.74	−6.08	2.11 (1.66 – 2.68)
Entorhinal	362	1290	184	−0.49	−5.62	1.64 (1.38 – 1.95)	−0.61	−6.00	1.84 (1.51 – 2.25)
Fusiform	362	1290	184	−0.43	−4.83	1.53 (1.29 – 2.26)	−0.50	−5.33	1.64 (1.37 – 1.98)
EcogSPTotal	79	282	13	1.01	2.85	2.75 (1.37 – 5.51)	1.34	3.24	3.83 (1.70 – 8.63)
WholeBrain	383	1612	199	−0.33	−3.46	1.40 (1.16 – 1.69)	−0.32	−3.21	1.38 (1.13 – 1.68)
EcogSPMem	80	283	13	0.99	3.02	2.70 (1.42 – 5.14)	1.37	3.14	3.93 (1.67 – 9.22)
EcogSPLang	80	285	13	0.55	1.82	1.73 (0.96 – 3.11)	1.11	2.96	3.03 (1.46 – 6.32)
EcogSPDivatt	79	264	13	0.97	2.59	2.63 (1.27 – 5.49)	1.54	2.93	4.67 (1.67 – 13.09)
EcogSPOrgan	78	273	13	0.72	2.29	2.06 (1.11 – 3.81)	0.98	2.85	2.66 (1.36 – 5.22)
EcogSPPlan	79	277	13	0.49	1.45	1.64 (0.84 – 3.20)	1.20	2.66	3.33 (1.37 – 8.08)
RAVLT.forgetting	384	1878	200	0.12	1.62	1.13 (0.97 – 1.30)	0.45	2.65	1.57 (1.13 – 2.20)
EcogSPVisspat	77	274	12	0.64	1.92	1.90 (0.99 – 3.66)	0.93	2.49	2.53 (1.22 – 5.25)
Ventricles	383	1597	199	0.20	2.57	1.22 (1.05 – 1.42)	0.18	2.37	1.19 (1.03 – 1.38)
AV45-PET	58	104	10	0.74	2.00	2.09 (1.02 – 4.31)	0.76	2.01	2.14 (1.02 – 4.48)
EcogPtOrgan	79	285	13	0.44	1.81	1.56 (0.96 – 2.52)	0.65	1.95	1.91 (1.00 – 3.68)
EcogPtMem	80	290	13	0.48	1.81	1.61 (0.96 – 2.70)	0.71	1.92	2.03 (0.99 – 4.16)
EcogPtTotal	80	290	13	0.34	1.35	1.41 (0.86 – 2.33)	0.52	1.66	1.69 (0.91 – 3.13)
EcogPtDivatt	80	289	13	0.21	0.80	1.23 (0.74 – 2.04)	0.47	1.36	1.61 (0.81 – 3.17)
MOCA	77	274	13	−0.22	−0.64	1.25 (0.63 – 2.46)	−0.50	−1.34	1.66 (0.79 – 3.46)
PIB-PET	60	113	27	0.24	1.05	1.27 (0.81 – 1.99)	0.32	1.31	1.37 (0.85 – 2.21)
EcogPtLang	80	289	13	0.26	0.94	1.30 (0.75 – 2.25)	0.39	1.08	1.48 (0.73 – 3.01)
EcogPtPlan	80	290	13	0.07	0.29	1.08 (0.65 – 1.77)	0.42	0.99	1.52 (0.66 – 3.48)
EcogPtVisspat	80	286	13	0.04	0.12	1.04 (0.56 – 1.93)	0.30	0.93	1.34 (0.72 – 2.50)
ICV	384	1632	200	0.01	0.10	1.01 (0.84 – 1.21)	0.00	0.05	1.00 (0.83 – 1.21)

Abbreviations: ADAS-Cog, Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive Subscale test; RAVLT, Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test; FAQ, Functional Assessment Questionnaire; MidTemp, Middle temporal gyrus; MMSE, Mini Mental State Examination; CDR-SB, Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes; FDG-PET, Sum of mean glucose metabolism uptake in regions of angular, temporal, and posterior cingulate; ECogPt, Everyday Cognition questionnaire filled out by the patient. ECogSP, Everyday Cognition questionnaire filled out by the patient’s study partner; MOCA, Montreal Cognitive Assessment; ICV, Intracerebral volume.

^*Measures are ranked by absolute Z-value for the association parameter (α) of the Joint Model.

^†Events are the number of conversions to AD.

^‡Hazard ratio (HR) or inverse hazard ratio (HR⁻¹) show the hazard for AD diagnosis associated with a difference of one SD in each measure.