Table 3.

Areas under the ROC curve and estimated dynamic discrimination index^*

Δt‡(month)		6			12
t† (month) (n)		12 (n = 315)	18 (n = 265)	24 (n = 217)	12 (n = 315)	18 (n = 265)	24 (n = 217)
ADAS-Cog 13	AUC	0.8	0.74	0.86	0.78	0.78	0.81
	DDI		0.79			0.79
ADAS-Cog 11	AUC	0.79	0.72	0.86	0.76	0.77	0.79
	DDI		0.78			0.78
RAVLT.Immediate	AUC	0.78	0.76	0.85	0.78	0.79	0.83
	DDI		0.78			0.76
FAQ	AUC	0.79	0.74	0.81	0.78	0.75	0.77
	DDI		0.74			0.72
MidTemp	AUC	0.71	0.73	0.71	0.74	0.72	0.68
	DDI		0.67			0.69
RAVLT.Learning	AUC	0.74	0.69	0.78	0.72	0.71	0.73
	DDI		0.74			0.71
MMSE	AUC	0.74	0.72	0.83	0.74	0.74	0.75
	DDI		0.75			0.72
Hippocampus	AUC	0.73	0.66	0.74	0.7	0.71	0.69
	DDI		0.68			0.69
CDR-SB	AUC	0.77	0.73	0.8	0.77	0.74	0.74
	DDI		0.73			0.72
FDG-PET	AUC	0.76	0.68	0.77	0.72	0.7	0.68
	DDI		0.7			0.71

Abbreviations: ADAS-Cog, Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive Subscale test; RAVLT, Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test; FAQ, Functional Assessment Questionnaire; MidTemp, Middle temporal gyrus; MMSE, Mini Mental State Examination; CDR-SB, Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes; FDG-PET, Sum of mean glucose metabolism uptake in regions of angular, temporal, and posterior cingulate.

^*The top 10 strongest predictors. AUC is the area under the ROC curve and DDI is dynamic discrimination index. Higher value indicates higher discrimination capability.

^†t is follow-up time, corresponding to different amounts of available longitudinal information. n is the remaining MCI patients at time t. Predictive utility is evaluated based on the longitudinal measure of these n patients observed before time t.

^‡Δt is relevant time window, corresponding to different prediction intervals.