Table 3.
Modeling first‐year and adult survival probabilities for Myotis myotis and Myotis blythii at the colonies of Naters and Raron in relation to cockchafer years. The models for probabilities of recapture (p Col*year+rep+spec), movement between colonies (ψjuv:.; ad: spec) and age‐specific first time reproduction (αa3+spec) were always the same therefore not included in the model notation below. We present the model's deviance, the number of estimated parameters, the difference in the Akaike's information criterion between the actual and the best model (ΔAIC), and the Akaike's weight
| Model for first‐year survival | Model for adult survival | Deviance | Parameters | ΔAIC | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | blythii.:.; myotis: cockchafer | 8747.12 | 52 | 0.00 | 0.261 |
| Year | blythii.:.; myotis: . | 8749.19 | 51 | 0.07 | 0.251 |
| Year | blythii.: cockchafer; myotis:. | 8748.47 | 52 | 1.35 | 0.132 |
| Year | blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: cockchafer | 8746.72 | 53 | 1.60 | 0.117 |
| blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: year | blythii.:.; myotis: cockchafer | 8746.43 | 54 | 3.31 | 0.049 |
| blythii.: year; myotis: cockchafer | blythii.:.; myotis: cockchafer | 8746.73 | 54 | 3.62 | 0.043 |
| blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: year | blythii.:.; myotis:. | 8749.20 | 53 | 4.08 | 0.034 |
| blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: cockchafer | blythii.:.; myotis: cockchafer | 8765.89 | 45 | 4.78 | 0.024 |
| blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: year | blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: cockchafer | 8746.16 | 55 | 5.05 | 0.021 |
| blythii.: year; myotis: cockchafer | blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: cockchafer | 8746.31 | 55 | 5.19 | 0.019 |
| blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: year | blythii.: cockchafer; myotis:. | 8748.67 | 54 | 5.55 | 0.016 |
| blythii.: year; myotis: cockchafer | blythii.:.; myotis: . | 8751.80 | 53 | 6.69 | 0.009 |
| blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: cockchafer | blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: cockchafer | 8765.87 | 46 | 6.75 | 0.009 |
| blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: cockchafer | blythii.:.; myotis: . | 8770.56 | 44 | 7.45 | 0.006 |
| blythii.: year; myotis: cockchafer | blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: . | 8750.99 | 54 | 7.87 | 0.005 |
| blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: cockchafer | blythii.: cockchafer; myotis: . | 8770.41 | 45 | 9.29 | 0.003 |
Model notation: year: different parameter for each year; cockchafer: different parameter for years with and without mass occurrence of cockchafers; *: interactive effects; + additive effects; . is for constancy.