Table 4.
Modeling of age‐specific probability to start to reproduce in Myotis myotis and Myotis blythii at the colonies of Naters and Raron in relation to cockchafer years. The models for probabilities of recapture (p Col*year+rep+spec), movement between colonies (ψjuv:.; ad: spec) and survival (ϕjuv: year; ad: spec) were always the same and therefore not included in the model notation below. We present the model's deviance, the number of estimated parameters, the difference in the Akaike's information criterion between the actual and the best model (ΔAIC), and the Akaike's weight
| Model for age‐specific probability to start reproduction (α) | Deviance | Parameters | ΔAIC | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| a3 + spec | 8749.19 | 51 | 0.00 | 0.771 |
| blythii.: a3; myotis: a3 + cockchafer(coh) | 8747.92 | 54 | 4.73 | 0.072 |
| blythii.: a3; myotis: a3 + cockchafer(time) | 8748.98 | 54 | 5.79 | 0.043 |
| blythii.: a3 + cockchafer(time); myotis: a3 | 8748.99 | 54 | 5.80 | 0.042 |
| blythii.: a3 + cockchafer(coh); myotis: a3 | 8749.00 | 54 | 5.81 | 0.042 |
| blythii.: a3; myotis: a3*cockchafer(coh) | 8747.83 | 56 | 8.65 | 0.010 |
| blythii.: a3; myotis: a3*cockchafer(time) | 8748.45 | 56 | 9.26 | 0.008 |
| blythii.: a3*cockchafer(coh); myotis: a3 | 8748.92 | 56 | 9.73 | 0.006 |
| blythii.: a3*cockchafer(time); myotis: a3 | 8748.97 | 56 | 9.78 | 0.006 |
Model notation: year: different parameter for each year, a2: 2 age classes (1st year, later), a3: 3 age classes (1st year, 2nd year, later), cockchafer(time): different parameter for years with and without mass occurrence of cockchafers; cockchafer(coh): different parameter depending on whether the individual was born in a cockchafer or a non‐cockchafer year (cohort effect), * interactive effects, + additive effects,. is for constancy.