Table 1.
Illustrative List of Studies Conducted on Physician Workforce.
| Authors | Study Year | Geography & State | Study Name | Organization | Scenarios |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | |||||
| Erikson et al1 | 2007 | United States | Future Supply and Demand for Oncologists: Challenges to Assuring Access to Oncology Services (forecast until 2020) | ASCO | Multiple scenarios (9) |
| HRSA and The Lewin Group2 | 2008 | United States | The Physician Workforce: Projections and Research into Current Issues Affecting Supply and Demand | Health Resources & Svc Admin, US DHHS | Multiple scenarios (8) |
| Dill and Salsberg3 | 2008 | United States | The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections Through 2025 | Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC | Multiple scenarios (>12) |
| Colwill et al4 | 2008 | United States | Will Generalist Physician Supply Meet Demands Of An Increasing And Aging Population? | U Missouri–Columbia | Multiple scenarios (4) |
| Forte and Armtrong5 | 2009 | New York | New York Physician Supply and Demand through 2030 | The Center for Healthcare Workforce Studies, School of Public Health, U Albany | Multiple scenarios (8) |
| Staiger et al6 | 2009 | United States | Comparison of Physician Workforce Estimates and Supply Projections | Grant from National Institute on Aging | Multiple scenarios (4) |
| Cribbs7 | 2010 | Virginia | Physician Forecasting in Virginia 2008 - 2030 | Healthcare Workforce Data Center, Virginia Dept Health Professions | Multiple scenarios |
| Petterson et al8 | 2012 | United States | Projecting US Primary Care Physician Workforce Needs: 2010-2025 | Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality | Multiple scenarios (3) |
| Withy et al9 | 2012 | Hawaii | Hawai’i Physician Workforce Assessment 2010 | U Hawai’i, HIS Global Insight | Multiple scenarios (3) |
| Dall et al10 | 2013 | United States | Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce | IHS Healthcare & Pharma; American Academy of Neurology and others | Multiple scenarios (6) |
| Robboy et al11 | 2013 | United States | Pathologist workforce in the United States: I. Development of a predictive model to examine factors influencing supply | College of American Pathologists | Base case only |
| Fraher12 | 2014 | United States | Model for US physician workforce: Need date | University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | Multiple scenarios |
| Dall et al13 | 2015 | United States | The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections Through 2025 | Center for Workforce Studies, AAMC | Multiple scenarios (>12) |
| Worldwide | |||||
| Basu and Gupta14 | 2005 | Canada | A physician demand and supply forecast model for Nova Scotia | Ministère de la Santé, Canada | Multiple scenarios |
| Scheffler et al15 | 2008 | Global | Forecasting the global shortage of physicians: an economic- and needs-based approach | U California, Berkeley, CA, WHO, London Business School | Multiple scenarios (3) |
| Koike et al16 | 2009 | Japan | Estimation of physician supply by specialty and the distribution impact of increasing female physicians in Japan | Health and Labour Sciences Research Grants | Base case only |
| Barber and Lopez-Valcarcel17 | 2010 | Spain | Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model | U Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Campus Universitario de Tafira | Multiple scenarios |
| Yuji et al18 | 2012 | Japan | Forecasting Japan’s Physician Shortage in 2035 as the First Full-Fledged Aged Society | U Tokyo | Base case only |
| Tsai et al19 | 2012 | Global | Predicting the demand of physician workforce: an international model based on “crowd behaviors” | Grant from Health Department, Executive Yuan, Taiwan, ROC | Base case only |
| Health Workforce Australia20 | 2012 | Australia | Health Workforce 2025—Doctors, Nurses and Midwives—Volume 1 | Health Workforce Australia | Multiple scenarios (>10) |
| de Graaf-Ruizendaal and de Bakker21 | 2013 | Netherlands | Construction of decision tool to analyze local demand and local supply for GP care using a synthetic estimation model | Dept Health, Welfare and Sport in the Netherlands | Base case only |
| Suphanchaimat et al22 | 2013 | Thailand | Projecting Thailand physician supplies between 2012 and 2030: application of cohort approaches | Ministry of Public Health | Base case only |
| Santric-Milicevic et al23 | 2013 | Serbia | Physician and nurse supply in Serbia using time-series data | U Belgrade | Base case only |
Abbreviations: AAMC, Association of American Medical Colleges; ASCO, American Society of Clinical Oncology; US DHHS, US Department of Health and Human Services; WHO, World Health Organization.