Table 2.
Operating characteristics for scenario 2 with both equal randomization and adaptive randomization: one effective treatment for marker groups 1–4; no effective treatment for marker group 5; with early stopping rule; and with vague priors
| Marker group
| |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treatment | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| ER | AR1 | ER | AR | ER | AR | ER | AR | ER | AR | |
| Disease control rate {1/2}2 | |||||
| 1 | 0.76/0.76 | 0.77/0.77 | 0.24/0.27 | 0.22/0.26 | 0.24/0.27 | 0.24/0.27 | 0.24/0.28 | 0.22/0.25 | 0.21/0.26 | 0.20/0.24 |
| 2 | 0.22/0.26 | 0.21/0.24 | 0.55/0.57 | 0.54/0.56 | 0.24/0.27 | 0.24/0.27 | 0.24/0.27 | 0.24/0.27 | 0.20/0.25 | 0.18/0.22 |
| 3 | 0.22/0.25 | 0.22/0.26 | 0.23/0.27 | 0.22/0.25 | 0.57/0.58 | 0.57/0.58 | 0.23/0.26 | 0.23/0.26 | 0.20/0.25 | 0.19/0.24 |
| 4 | 0.23/0.27 | 0.22/0.25 | 0.23/0.26 | 0.23/0.26 | 0.25/0.28 | 0.24/0.27 | 0.56/0.57 | 0.55/0.56 | 0.19/0.24 | 0.19/0.24 |
| Average sample size (column percentage) | |||||
| 1 | 11.4 (38.1) | 13.0 (43.2) | 8.2 (20.4) | 7.6 (19.1) | 11.3 (18.9) | 10.8 (17.9) | 10.0 (19.9) | 9.0 (18.1) | 4.7 (23.7) | 4.6 (22.9) |
| 2 | 6.0 (20.1) | 5.4 (17.9) | 14.8 (36.9) | 15.4 (38.8) | 11.3 (18.9) | 11.1 (18.4) | 9.8 (19.5) | 9.3 (18.7) | 4.5 (22.7) | 4.3 (21.4) |
| 3 | 6.0 (20.1) | 5.7 (18.9) | 8.1 (20.2) | 7.7 (19.4) | 24.4 (40.7) | 25.9 (43.0) | 9.6 (19.1) | 9.3 (18.7) | 4.5 (22.7) | 4.4 (21.9) |
| 4 | 6.2 (20.7) | 5.7 (18.9) | 7.9 (19.7) | 7.6 (19.1) | 11.5 (19.2) | 10.9 (18.1) | 19.5 (38.8) | 20.7 (41.6) | 4.3 (21.7) | 4.5 (22.4) |
| None | 0.2 (0.7) | 0.3 (1.0) | 1.1 (2.7) | 1.4 (3.5) | 1.5 (2.5) | 1 .7 (2.8) | 1.3 (2.6) | 1.5 (3.0) | 1.8 (9.1) | 2.2 (10.9) |
| Total | 29.9 | 30.1 | 40.1 | 39.7 | 59.9 | 60.3 | 50.2 | 49.8 | 19.8 | 20.1 |
| Prob(A)/Prob(B)3 | |||||
| 1 | 0.94/0.05 | 0.95/0.04 | 0.19/0.55 | 0.14/0.56 | 0.14/0.61 | 0.14/0.63 | 0.15/0.58 | 0.12/0.61 | 0.17/0.53 | 0.14/0.57 |
| 2 | 0.15/0.54 | 0.13/0.56 | 0.83/0.11 | 0.82/0.12 | 0.14/0.61 | 0.14/0.61 | 0.15/0.59 | 0.14/0.58 | 0.15/0.55 | 0.14/0.61 |
| 3 | 0.15/0.56 | 0.17/0.54 | 0.16/0.56 | 0.15/0.58 | 0.89/0.07 | 0.90/0.07 | 0.14/0.61 | 0.14/0.60 | 0.17/0.57 | 0.13/0.57 |
| 4 | 0.17/0.52 | 0.14/0.53 | 0.15/0.57 | 0.14/0.56 | 0.15/0.62 | 0.14/0.62 | 0.87/0.09 | 0.86/0.09 | 0.14/0.58 | 0.15/0.57 |
1
ER: equal randomization; AR: adaptive randomization.
2
For disease control rate, 1/2 indicate the observed disease control rate (1) and the model-based posterior mean of the disease control rate (2).
3
Prob(A)/Prob(B) correpond to probability of declaring an effective treatment/probability of suspending an ineffective treatment, respectively.