Table 3.

Operating characteristics for Scenario 3: varying effectiveness for treatments 1 and 3. Treatment 2 is equally effective and Treatment 3 is equally ineffective for marker groups 1–5; adaptive randomization utilized with no early stopping rule; and with varying informative priors σ²=100, 10, 1, and τ²=10⁶

Marker group
Treatment	1	2	3	4	5
True disease control rate/Observed disease control rate {1/2/3}
1	0.8/0.78/0.80/0.79	0.8/0.79/0.80/0.79	0.6/0.58/0.58/0.59	0.6/0.58/0.58/0.59	0.3/0.24/0.24/0.29
2	0.6/0.55/0.57/0.58	0.6/0.58/0.57/0.58	0.6/0.59/0.60/0.59	0.6/0.58/0.58/0.59	0.6/0.55/0.54/0.56
3	0.6/0.58/0.55/0.57	0.3/0.27/0.26/0.28	0.6/0.58/0.58/0.60	0.3/0.27/0.28/0.28	0.3/0.24/0.25/0.27
4	0.3/0.26/0.27/0.28	0.3/0.28/0.26/0.27	0.3/0.28/0.28/0.28	0.3/0.27/0.27/0.28	0.3/0.25/0.24/0.26
Model-based posterior mean of the disease control rate {1/2/3}
1	0.77/0.78/0.74	0.78/0.78/0.75	0.58/0.58/0.59	0.58/0.58/0.59	0.27/0.29/0.42
2	0.55/0.57/0.58	0.57/0.57/0.58	0.59/0.59/0.59	0.58/0.59/0.58	0.55/0.55/0.57
3	0.58/0.55/0.53	0.28/0.28/0.32	0.58/0.57/0.57	0.28/0.29/0.32	0.26/0.28/0.34
4	0.27/0.29/0.30	0.29/0.27/0.29	0.29/0.29/0.29	0.28/0.28/0.29	0.27/0.27/0.29
Average sample size {1/2/3}
1	9.3/9.4/9.1	13.4/13.6/12.8	16.5/16.5/16.5	14.9/15.0/14.9	4.6/4.6/5.1
2	7.6/7.7/7.9	11.1/11.0/11.3	16.4/16.5/16.5	14.6/14.9/15.0	6.6/6.8/6.2
3	7.8/7.6/7.4	8.0/7.9/8.5	16.3/16.0/16.1	10.6/10.5/10.8	4.5/4.7/4.7
4	5.7/5.8/5.8	8.2/7.8/7.8	11.8/11.8/12.0	10.5/10.4/10.3	4.5/4.4/4.3
Total	30.5/30.5/30.2	40.7/40.4/40.4	61.0/60.9/61.1	50.5/50.7/50.9	20.2/20.5/20.3
Probability of declaring effective treatment {1/2/3}
1	0.95/0.96/0.97	0.98/0.99/0.99	0.91/0.91/0.93	0.89/0.89/0.92	0.15/0.16/0.33
2	0.71/0.75/0.79	0.83/0.80/0.86	0.91/0.92/0.95	0.89/0.88/0.91	0.68/0.68/0.75
3	0.76/0.71/0.71	0.18/0.15/0.19	0.90/0.89/0.91	0.16/0.18/0.19	0.16/0.17/0.17
4	0.18/0.18/0.17	0.17/0.17/0.14	0.17/0.19/0.18	0.16/0.15/0.16	0.19/0.16/0.11

¹The entries {1/2/3} correspond to σ²=100(1); σ²=10(2); and σ²=1(3), respectively.