TABLE 2.
Total cumulative expected deaths from CVD for 2015–2030 and reductions associated with each policy scenario1
| Baseline | Price decreased by 10% | Price decreased by 30% | MMC decaying impact | MMC sustained effect | |
| CAD | 5,051,300 (4,930,100, 5,187,800)2 | 79,700 (75,900, 83,600) [1.6]3 | 236,800 (225,400, 247,200) [4.7] | 9600 (9000, 10,200) [0.2] | 28,700 (26,700, 29,500) [0.6] |
| Men | 2,900,600 (2,823,000, 2,995,200) | 47,100 (44,200, 50,000) [1.6] | 139,800 (131,100, 147,600) [4.8] | 6000 (5500, 6500) [0.2] | 17 ,900 (16,300, 18,700) [0.6] |
| Women | 2,150,800 (2,055,800, 2,253,300) | 32,600 (30,200, 35,100) [1.5] | 97,000 (90,700, 104,400) [4.5] | 3700 (3300, 4100) [0.2] | 10,900 (9800, 11,500) [0.5] |
| Stroke | 2,011,600 (1,900,300, 2,135,100) | 73,200 (68,600, 78,400) [3.6] | 215,100 (200,800, 229,000) [10.7] | 9000 (8300, 9600) [0.4] | 27,300 (24,700, 29,100) [1.4] |
| Men | 862,400 (773,700, 970,400) | 32,000 (28,400, 36,200) [3.7] | 93,800 (83,400, 105,400) [10.9] | 4200 (3800, 4700) [0.5] | 12,900 (11,100, 14,500) [1.5] |
| Women | 1,149,200 (1,085,500, 1,214,100) | 41,300 (37,900, 44,600) [3.6] | 121,200 (111,500, 130,700) [10.5] | 4700 (4300, 5200) [0.4] | 14,400 (12,900, 15,500) [1.3] |
| CVD | 7,062,900 (6,890,400, 7,244,100) | 153,000 (146,400, 159,200) [2.2] | 451,900 (433,100, 467,500) [6.4] | 18,600 (17,600, 19,500) [0.3] | 56,100 (52,400, 57,700) [0.8] |
| Men | 3,762,900 (3,636,400, 3,908,800) | 79,000 (74,600, 84,200) [2.1] | 233,700 (219,500, 246,200) [6.2] | 10,200 (9500, 10,800) [0.3] | 30,800 (28,200, 32,400) [0.8] |
| Women | 3,300,000 (3,189,300, 3,410,500) | 73,900 (69,800, 78,000) [2.2] | 218,300 (206,100, 230,100) [6.6] | 8400 (7800, 9100) [0.3] | 25,300 (23,200, 26,400) [0.8] |
1
Baseline numbers of deaths are cumulative from 2015 to 2030. MMC “decaying impact” models refer to a 1-y MMC; “sustained effect” models refer to a 15-y MMC. Data are stratified by CVD subtype and sex. Results are rounded to the nearest 100. CAD, coronary artery disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; MMC, mass media campaign.
2
Number of baseline expected deaths; 95% CI in parentheses (all such values).
3
Reduction in the number of deaths; 95% CI in parentheses; percentage of reduction in CVD mortality in brackets (all such values).