TABLE 4.
Expected deaths from CVD from 2015 to 2030 and cumulative absolute deaths prevented or postponed from 2015 to 2030 associated with each policy option by age and sex1
| Baseline | Price decreased by 10% | Price decreased by 30% | MMC decaying impact | |
| Men, y | ||||
| 25–34 | 18,600 (17,300, 20,100)2 | 810 (700, 950) [4.4]3 | 2400 (2100, 2800) [12.8] | 130 (110, 150) [0.7] |
| 35–44 | 87,400 (82,600, 92,600) | 3000 (2700, 3400) [3.4] | 8800 (7800, 9900) [10.1] | 420 (360, 470) [0.5] |
| 45–54 | 239,600 (227,900, 251,500) | 8400 (7600, 9300) [3.5] | 24,700 (22,100, 27,400) [10.3] | 930 (810, 1060) [0.4] |
| 55–64 | 518,200 (495,700, 541,800) | 16,200 (14,500, 17,800) [3.1] | 47,800 (42,900, 52,900) [9.2] | 1200 (1000, 1400) [0.2] |
| 65–74 | 854,700 (811,400, 908,100) | 21,400 (19,100, 24,300) [2.5] | 63,200 (56,400, 70,600) [7.4] | 3200 (2800, 3600) [0.4] |
| ≥75 | 2,044,600 (1,938,300, 2,173,700) | 29,200 (25,900, 33,000) [1.4] | 86,900 (77,000, 97,900) [4.2] | 4400 (3900, 4900) [0.2] |
| Women, y | ||||
| 25–34 | 7900 (7400, 8600) | 440 (390, 490) [5.6] | 1300 (1100, 1400) [16.1] | 59 (51, 68) [0.8] |
| 35–44 | 32,000 (30,400, 34,000) | 1500 (1400, 1700) [4.7] | 4400 (3900, 4800) [13.8] | 180 (150, 200) [0.6] |
| 45–54 | 99,500 (94,800, 104,700) | 4400 (4000, 4800) [4.4] | 12,800 (11,600, 14,000) [12.9] | 410 (360, 460) [0.4] |
| 55–64 | 266,300 (253,400, 280,600) | 10,300 (9300, 11,200) [3.8] | 30,100 (27,400, 32,800) [11.3] | 620 (540, 700) [0.2] |
| 65–74 | 517,500 (489,800, 548,400) | 16,600 (15,000, 18,300) [3.2] | 48,900 (44,500, 53,300) [9.4] | 2000 (1800, 2200) [0.4] |
| ≥75 | 2,376,700 (2,265,500, 2,486,000) | 40,700 (37,300, 44,400) [1.7] | 120,900 (110,200, 131,600) [5.1] | 5100 (4600, 5800) [0.2] |
1
Baseline number of deaths are cumulative from 2015 to 2030. MMC “decaying impact” models refer to a 1-y MMC; “sustained effect” models refer to a 15-y MMC. Results are rounded to the nearest 100, rounded to the nearest 10 (<1000), or not rounded (<100). CVD, cardiovascular disease; MMC, mass media campaign.
2
Number of baseline expected deaths; 95% CI in parentheses (all such values).
3
Reduction in the number of deaths; 95% CI in parentheses; percentage of reduction in CVD mortality in brackets (all such values).