Table 3.
Multinomial logistic regression model predicting trajectory membership.
| Model 1: Ascribed Factors | Model 2: + Childhood Factors | Model 3: + Adulthood Factors | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 2: Moderately Improving | Class 3: Steadily Deteriorating | Class 4: Steeply Deteriorating | Class 5: Persistently High comorbid | Class 2: Moderately Improving | Class 3: Steadily Deteriorating | Class 4: Steeply Deteriorating | Class 5: Persistently High comorbid | Class 2: Moderately Improving | Class 3: Steadily Deteriorating | Class 4: Steeply Deteriorating | Class 5: Persistently High Comorbid | |||||||||||||
| RRR (SE) | p | RRR (SE) | p | RRR (SE) | p | RRR (SE) | p | RRR (SE) | p | RRR (SE) | p | RRR (SE) | p | RRR (SE) | p | RRR (SE) | p | RRR (SE) | p | RRR (SE) | p | RRR (SE) | p | |
| Person-ascribed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Age | 0.96 | 0.000 | 1.01 | 0.044 | .96 | 0.008 | 1.02 | 0.000 | 1.03 | 0.000 | 1.00 | 0.524 | 0.96 | 0.002 | 1.01 | 0.013 | 1.02 | 0.000 | 0.98 | 0.059 | 0.94 | 0.000 | 0.99 | 0.466 |
| (0.01) | (0.00) | (0.01) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.01) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.01) | (0.00) | |||||||||||||
| Female | 0.98 | 0.000 | 1.55 | 0.000 | 0.98 | 0.902 | 1.77 | 0.000 | 1.71 | 0.000 | 1.54 | 0.000 | 0.99 | 0.964 | 1.76 | 0.000 | 2.49 | 0.000 | 2.07 | 0.000 | 1.11 | 0.369 | 3.90 | 0.000 |
| (0.11) | (0.08) | (0.11) | (0.11) | (0.12) | (0.08) | (0.11) | (0.11) | (0.19) | (0.13) | (0.13) | (0.36) | |||||||||||||
| Race (Caucasian) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| African American | 1.52 | 0.000 | 1.66 | 0.000 | 1.52 | 0.001 | 2.46 | 0.000 | 1.41 | 0.000 | 1.40 | 0.000 | 1.25 | 0.062 | 1.85 | 0.000 | 0.86 | 0.041 | 0.81 | 0.001 | 0.96 | 0.808 | 0.73 | 0.000 |
| (0.18) | (0.08) | (0.18) | (0.13) | (0.08) | (0.07) | (0.15) | (0.10) | (0.06) | (0.04) | (0.12) | (0.05) | |||||||||||||
| Others | 2.39 | 0.000 | 1.52 | 0.000 | 2.39 | 0.000 | 2.43 | 0.000 | 1.50 | 0.000 | 1.21 | 0.027 | 1.85 | 0.000 | 1.61 | 0.000 | 1.00 | 0.967 | 0.87 | 0.187 | 1.50 | 0.015 | 0.73 | 0.012 |
| (0.38) | (0.12) | (0.38) | (0.020) | (0.14) | (0.10) | (0.30) | (0.07) | (0.11) | (0.08) | (0.25) | (0.09) | |||||||||||||
| Childhood SES | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Poverty | 1.03 | 0.492 | 1.30 | 0.000 | 1.70 | 0.000 | 1.49 | 0.000 | 0.99 | 0.939 | 1.23 | 0.000 | 1.57 | 0.000 | 1.24 | 0.001 | ||||||||
| (0.05) | (0.05) | (0.17) | (0.07) | (0.06) | (0.06) | (0.16) | (0.08) | |||||||||||||||||
| Parental education | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <High school | 1.57 | 0.000 | 1.56 | 0.000 | 1.53 | 0.002 | 1.86 | 0.000 | 1.25 | 0.003 | 1.24 | 0.000 | 1.31 | 0.049 | 1.28 | 0.007 | ||||||||
| (0.10) | (0.08) | (0.20) | (0.12) | (0.09) | (0.07) | (0.18) | (0.12) | |||||||||||||||||
| College or higher | 0.72 | 0.000 | 0.91 | 0.197 | 1.23 | 0.182 | 0.73 | 0.001 | 0.86 | 0.126 | 1.16 | 0.050 | 1.54 | 0.007 | 1.06 | 0.611 | ||||||||
| (0.06) | (0.06) | (0.19) | (0.06) | (0.08) | (0.08) | (0.025) | (0.12) | |||||||||||||||||
| Adulthood SES | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Income change b | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increased | 1.27 | 0.016 | 1.41 | 0.000 | 2.42 | 0.000 | 2.55 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.12) | (0.12) | (0.16) | (0.42) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Decreased | 1.33 | 0.004 | 1.41 | 0.000 | 3.54 | 0.000 | 2.41 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.13) | (0.12) | (0.88) | (0.40) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Low maintaining | 1.70 | 0.000 | 2.16 | 0.000 | 2.98 | 0.000 | 3.91 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.19) | (0.21) | (0.82) | (0.68) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Education a | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| <High school | 1.07 | 0.356 | 1.04 | 0.475 | 1.66 | 0.000 | 1.47 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.07) | (0.06) | (0212) | (0.11) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| College or higher | 0.81 | 0.002 | 0.64 | 0.000 | 0.83 | 0.114 | 0.70 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.05) | (0.03) | (0.09) | (0.05) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Covariates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Marital status | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Constantly unmarried | 1.41 | 0.000 | 1.56 | 0.000 | 1.55 | 0.000 | 2.08 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.08) | (0.08) | (0.17) | (0.15) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Status changed | 1.22 | 0.021 | 1.28 | 0.001 | 1.70 | 0.000 | 1.55 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.10) | (0.09) | (0.23) | (0.16) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Work status | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Constantly not work | 2.12 | 0.000 | 2.959 | 0.000 | 3.28 | 0.000 | 11.87 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.15) | (0.16) | (0.49) | (1.29) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Status changed | 1.33 | 0.000 | 2.23 | 0.000 | 3.54 | 0.000 | 4.24 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.08) | (0.12) | (0.44) | (0.46) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Childhood health c | 1.53 | 0.000 | 1.36 | 0.000 | 1.41 | 0.000 | 1.93 | 0.000 | 1.15 | 0.000 | 1.06 | 0.007 | 1.20 | 0.000 | 1.23 | 0.000 | ||||||||
| (0.03) | (0.02) | (0.05) | (0.03) | (0.02) | (0.02) | (0.05) | (0.03) | |||||||||||||||||
| (Baseline) Adult health | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Self-rated health c | 2.72 | 0.000 | 2.03 | 0.000 | 1.28 | 0.000 | 5.34 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.08) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0228) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Number of chronic diseases | 1.49 | 0.000 | 1.60 | 0.000 | 1.29 | 0.000 | 2.02 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.06) | (0.05) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Obesity | 1.36 | 0.000 | 1.91 | 0.000 | 1.06 | 0.515 | 2.18 | 0.000 | ||||||||||||||||
| (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.11) | (0.14) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Died during follow-up | 2.77 | 0.001 | 4.25 | 0.000 | 5.41 | 0.000 | 7.44 | 0.000 | 3.02 | 0.000 | 4.56 | 0.000 | 5.91 | 0.000 | 8.72 | 0.000 | 1.61 | 0.150 | 2.62 | 0.000 | 4.17 | 0.001 | 2.50 | 0.003 |
| (0.81) | (0.95) | (2.22) | (1.56) | (0.89) | (1.04) | (2.44) | (1.92) | (0.54) | (0.70) | (1.77) | (0.77) | |||||||||||||
| Ever attrited | 1.08 | 0.390 | 1.08 | 0.280 | 0.89 | 0.560 | 1.07 | 0.384 | 1.07 | 0.457 | 1.07 | 0.367 | 0.89 | 0.539 | 1.07 | 0.406 | 1.01 | 0.857 | 0.99 | 0.976 | 0.79 | 0.240 | 0.99 | 0.972 |
| (0.09) | (0.08) | (0.16) | (0.09) | (0.09) | (0.08) | (0.16) | (0.09) | (0.10) | (0.08) | (0159) | (0.11) | |||||||||||||
| Constant | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.03 | 0.000 | 0.18 | 0.027 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.02 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.01 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.000 | |
| (0.00) | (0.01) | (0.14) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.01) | (0.00) | ||||||||||||||
| Pseudo R2 | 0.0160 | 0.0592 | 0.2818 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Log Likelihood chi2 | 797.69 (24) *** | 2946.84 (40) *** | 14,039.84(88) *** | |||||||||||||||||||||
| (df) | 2149.15 (16) *** | 11,093.00(48) *** | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| ∆χ2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Note: SES: Socioeconomic status; reference group: Relatively healthy (Class 1); RRR: Relative Risk Ratios; SE: Standard Errors; a the reference group for parental education and respondent’s education is high school graduates; <High school indicates less than high school diploma; b the reference group for income change is those with constantly high maintaining incomes; c higher values indicate poorer health; significance level of p- value *** p < 0.001.