Table 4.

Estimates of Regression Models Predicting Recession-Related Change in County Unemployment (2006–2009)

Variable	No state fixed effects			W/state fixed effects
	β	SE		β	SE
Unemployment rate, 2006	−0.039	0.022	ˆ	0.056	0.029	ˆ
% Non-Hispanic black	0.011	0.003	***	0.018	0.003	***
% Hispanic	0.009	0.004	*	0.016	0.005	**
% Foreign-born	0.047	0.010	***	−0.003	0.011
% No high school diploma	−0.013	0.006	*	0.020	0.008	*
% Bachelors degree+	−0.053	0.007	***	−0.017	0.008	*
% Workers agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, mining	−0.026	0.006	***	−0.024	0.007	***
% Workers construction	0.078	0.016	***	0.104	0.017	***
% Workers education, health, social services	−0.006	0.009		−0.011	0.009
% Workers manufacturing	0.035	0.006	***	0.071	0.006	***
Oil and gas production, 2006 (yes)	−0.047	0.067		−0.049	0.085
Metropolitan Status (Large metropolitan [1 million+ population]=ref)
Small/medium metropolitan (250,000–1 million pop)	−0.231	0.094	*	−0.266	0.092	**
Large nonmetropolitan, adjacent to metropolitan	0.307	0.137	*	0.163	0.133
Large nonmetropolitan, not adjacent to metropolitan	−0.311	0.193		−0.222	0.188
Rural, adjacent to metropolitan	0.239	0.102	*	0.121	0.099
Rural, not adjacent to metropolitan	−0.020	0.101		−0.035	0.100
Spatial lag	0.727	0.014	***	0.508	0.019	***
Intercept	1.657	0.409	***	2.180	0.516	***
N	3097			3097
Psuedo R-squared	0.614			0.652
P > Likelihood ratio vs. null	1650.55***			533.11***

^ˆp<0.10

^*p<0.05

^**p<0.01

^***p<0.001