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. 2017 Jun 28;3(6):e1700263. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263

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Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

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Fig. 3 — Starting from a 100-year event with independent temperature and negative precipitation (that is, both exceed their 90th percentile), the increase in likelihood of these events due to the dependence between temperature and correlation is shown. (A) Average of the increases in likelihood across all CMIP5 models. (B) Average of the increases in likelihood in the data sets CRU, Princeton, and Delaware. (C) Increases in likelihood were averaged over CMIP5 models across the regions central North America (CNA), Amazon (AMZ), central Europe (CEU), South Africa (SAF), East Asia (EAS), and South Asia (SAS). Whiskers represent 1 SD over all models. (D) As in (C) but averaged over observation-based data sets CRU, Princeton, and Delaware. Whiskers represent 1 SD over all three data sets.