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. 2017 Jun 28;3(6):e1700263. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263

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Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

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Fig. 4 — (A) Increase in likelihood of concurrently exceeding the historical 90th percentiles of temperature and negative precipitation averaged over the warm season during the 21st century. The average over all CMIP5 models is shown. (B) Change in interannual correlation between temperature and precipitation averaged over the warm season between 1870–1969 and the 21st century. The average over all CMIP5 models is shown. (C) Change in likelihood that an extremely hot and dry warm season with a return period of 100 years during 1870–1969 will occur during the 21st century. The average across all CMIP5 models is shown. Stippling highlights locations where models show a significant increase in likelihood in the 21st century (P < 0.1). For (B) and (C), temperature and precipitation during the warm season were linearly detrended in both time periods before further analysis.