. 2017 Jun 28;7:4343. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-04628-2

Table 2.

Posterior estimates of spatio-temporal evolutionary parameters and comparisons under different spatial diffusion models.

	Spatial diffusion model
	Homogeneous diffusion	Heterogeneous diffusion
	Homogeneous diffusion	Cauchy	Gamma	LogNormal
Clade ‘A’
ML by SS^a	−5932.1	−5368.2	−5229.5	−5363.1
ML by PS^b	−5929.5	−5362.9	−5225.1	−5363.8
In BF^c	1408.8	278.2	Best-fitting model	277.4
Mean evolutionary rate	0.0072 (0.0057, 0.0087)	0.0084 (0.0068, 0.0101)	0.0089 (0.0072, 0.0107)	0.0082 (0.0066, 0.0098)
Date of outbreak origin	1999.7 (1996.8, 2002.7)	2001.7 (1998.8, 2004.1)	2002.0 (1999.4, 2004.4)	2001.4 (1998.7, 2004.1)
Dispersal rate (km/year)	23.8 (19.4, 28.4)	16.4 (13.8, 19.1)	16.3 (14.2, 19.4)	15.9 (13.6, 18.3)
Clade ‘B’
ML by SS^a	−6581.5	−6156.85	−5991.9	−6253.75
ML by PS^b	−6576.8	−6151.25	−5984.3	−6250.95
In BF^c	1185	329.8	Best-fitting model	533.3
Mean evolutionary rate	0.0066 (0.0055, 0.0080)	0.0073 (0.0061, 0.0086)	0.0074 (0.0061, 0.0087)	0.0073 (0.0061, 0.0087)
Date of epidemic origin	1989.1 (1984.0, 1993.8)	1990.4 (1985.4, 1995.2)	1990.4 (1985.4, 1995.4)	1991.0 (1986.1, 1995.4)
Dispersal rate (km/year)	14.6 (12.5, 17.1)	12.9 (11.2, 14.8)	13.1 (11.3, 14.2)	13.3 (11.4, 15.2)
Clade ‘C’
ML by SS^a	−6182.0	−5097.9	−5171.5	−5436.0
ML by PS^b	−6185.2	−5092.9	−5169.4	−5406.5
In BF^c	2184.6	Best-fitting model	153	627.2
Mean evolutionary rate	0.01 (0.0082, 0.012)	0.0114 (0.0094, 0.0135)	0.0117 (0.0098, 0.0139)	0.0116 (0.0096, 0.0135)
Date of epidemic origin	2005.5 (2004.5, 2006.4)	2003.0 (2000.7, 2005.0)	2006.4 (2005.6, 2007)	2006.2 (2005.4, 2007.0)
Dispersal rate (km/year)	39.3 (33.3, 45.2)	73.1 (59.2, 87.4)	61.4 (42.4, 85.5)	24.6 (21.7, 27.6)

^aMarginal likelihood estimated by stepping-stone. ^bMarginal likelihood estimated by path-sampling. ^cBayes factors.